It could take more than two years and cost upward of $100 million in repairs before the Navy can begin safely draining its Red Hill fuel tanks, according to Hawaii U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele, who held a town hall meeting Monday night with U.S. Rep. Ed Case at Moanalua High School Performing Arts Center.

Those estimates are based on a third-party contractor’s report released last month that identified extensive repairs throughout Red Hill’s fuel distribution system that need to be completed before tens of millions of gallons of fuel can safely be moved through its pipeline system.

The contractor’s report identified more than 200 repairs that are needed to continue safely operating the facility, 43 of which were needed before defueling.

Only three of the 43 repairs that were identified have since been fixed, 22 are under contract and another 18 are in the planning stage, according to Kahele. He estimated that draining the massive underground tanks could begin in September 2024, which would include the time it would take to issue contracts.

The extensive repairs identified by the contractor have raised questions about the Navy’s overall maintenance of Red Hill over the years and why these improvements weren’t completed earlier when Red Hill was still operating. The Navy has not responded to questions from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser about its history of pipeline repairs.

The Navy shut down operations at Red Hill after a November fuel leak from the facility contaminated its drinking water system, sickening residents of neighborhoods in and around Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, many of whom were military families. The Pentagon ordered the Red Hill facility to be permanently shut down on March 7 amid widespread demands from Hawaii’s political leaders and community activists that the facility be closed.

The Navy is required to submit a plan for draining and closing Red Hill to the Hawaii Department of Health, which regulates the facility, by June 30. DOH could revise the plan and needed repairs.

Kahele said that one issue that needs to be addressed is how to balance the risk of allowing the fuel to sit in the tanks for so long. “There is a risk in waiting,” he said.

While the estimated timeline for defueling is significantly longer than Hawaii’s congressional delegation had anticipated, Case said that he doesn’t think the military is dragging it out or waffling on its commitment to shut down Red Hill.

“My assessment is that they are absolutely not going backwards on this,” said Case. He said that the Navy has already determined how to distribute the fuel across the Indo-Pacific region, classified information that he says he has been briefed on.

Hawaii’s delegation is currently pressing Congress to approve $1.1 billion in Red Hill-related funding, which is on top of $1.1 billion that already has been appropriated.

Last year’s fuel contamination was confined to the Navy’s drinking water system, but decades of leaks from the facility also have raised concerns that fuel could migrate into Oahu’s municipal drinking water system.

The Honolulu Board of Water Supply shut down three of its wells following the Navy’s fuel spill in November that polluted its Red Hill shaft. The wells were shut down as a precaution, but BWS has been exploring other water sources in case it can’t restart those wells.

Studies are ongoing to gauge whether old fuel stuck in lava rock could migrate across Halawa Valley and into BWS wells. “Should that be true, the contamination and releases of the past could still haunt us into the future,” said BWS Manager and Chief Engineer Ernie Lau, who also spoke during the town hall.

Lau said that it could cost as much as $195 million to replace the lost capacity from the three closed wells.

Lau said he is also concerned about the prospect of leaving fuel in the Red Hill tanks for so long, noting that there is also a risk of the tanks themselves leaking. But he said that the risk of a pipeline rupture could be catastrophic.

“We are dealing with a nightmare here,” said Lau.

Meanwhile, the Navy is still working to remediate Red Hill shaft and has pumped more than 530 million gallons of water out of the aquifer, said Kahele. The water is being filtered and deposited into Halawa Stream.