Honolulu consumers have a little something they can feel good about financially as high inflation eats into their pocketbooks.
Oahu’s rolling 12-month inflation rate ticked down in May to 7.0% from the prior 12-month measurement of 7.5% in March, according to a U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics report.
It doesn’t mean goods and services are getting cheaper, but the rate of price increases is getting smaller.
“That is a good sign,” said
Eugene Tian, chief economist for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. “We are actually
diminishing.”
The diminishing rate of inflation also occurred in shorter-term BLS data that showed inflation for Honolulu during April and May was 1.6%, down from 2.4% during February and March.
On top of that there are encouraging expectations that the rate of inflation will continue to decrease. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, an unusually large step, in an effort to curb inflation and spending by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.
Tian said the interest rate hike, the highest by the Fed in nearly three decades, is a very aggressive move that should knock down inflation in the coming months in combination with expected future Fed interest rate hikes.
Still, the 12-month inflation rate for Oahu through May has already been plenty painful for consumers.
“It’s made a big impact,” local retiree Harriet Clement said Wednesday after shopping at Costco. “I pay more and come out with less.”
Clement said she now looks for less-expensive items instead of paying little mind to price before putting something in her shopping cart.
“You can’t shop the way you used to,” she said.
Nathan Campbell, an Oahu contractor, used to spend $340 to $360 during a typical trip to Costco for food and other household items for his family of five. On Wednesday the bill was $736.
“Ridiculous,” he said.
Among major BLS categories, food had the third-highest
cost increase contributing to
general inflation, at 8.7% for
the 12 months through May in Honolulu.
The cost for groceries, or food at home, was up more — 10.1% — than a 6.8% increase for food away from home.
Within the food-at-home category, the biggest cost increase was 13.9% for cereal/bakery products followed by 11.8% for meat, poultry, fish and eggs. Dairy prices were up 10.4% and fruits and vegetables were up 7.0%.
The rise for nonalcoholic beverages was 6.6%, while alcoholic beverage prices bucked the trend and edged down by 0.3%.
Transportation had the biggest price jump among major BLS categories in
Honolulu, and rose 16.5%. This was driven mainly by new and used vehicles costing 11.4% more, and the price of gas being up 37.7%.
A gallon of regular gas in Honolulu cost $5.43 Wednesday, up from $3.91 a year earlier, according to AAA.
Medical care prices rose 10.0%, representing the second-biggest increase among major categories.
The cost of housing in
Honolulu was up 4.6% during the 12 months through May. Much of this increase was due to a 37.2% jump in the price of electricity. Rent for primary residences was up just 2.2% while the cost of homeownership was up a scant 0.7%.
BLS calculates inflation rates every other month only for large urban communities that don’t include neighbor island counties.
The U.S. inflation rate during the 12 months through May was 8.6%, up from 8.5% in the 12 months through March.
Tian said Honolulu’s rate is lower largely because BLS assigns a greater weight to housing costs for Honolulu compared with the mainland, and housing cost increases were low in Honolulu.
The Fed’s goal is to bring down U.S. inflation to around 2% and anticipates that the rate could drop to 2.6% next year.
DBEDT projects that Honolulu’s inflation rate, which rose from 1.6% in 2020 to 3.8% last year, will be 6% for this year as a whole and then decline to 2.8% next year.
At 6%, Honolulu’s inflation rate would be the highest it has been since 1991.
“It’s something that
we didn’t feel in the last
30 years,” Tian said.