This week, the Honolulu Police Department released some disturbing statistics about violent crime: The number of homicide, robbery and assault cases from January to April is at a four-year high, compared to the same period from previous years. Rape cases were the highest in three years.
Law enforcement officials are rightly concerned, and the rest of us should be, too. But how concerned?
Statistics can deceive, and trying to discern an upward trend from four-month data samples can be a fool’s errand.
The COVID-19 pandemic — with widespread lockdowns, few tourists and local residents staying home — may have accounted for artificially lower numbers in 2020 and 2021. And comparing pre-COVID 2019 to 2022, the changes for robbery, assault and rape cases aren’t particularly dramatic:
>> Robberies: 306 in 2019; 325 in 2022.
>> Assaults: 382 in 2019; 410 in 2022
>> Rape: 93 in 2019; 90 in 2022
Homicide cases, however, showed a sharp increase that can’t be brushed off. In 2022, there were 13, including eight involving firearms. In 2019, there were only three. In 2020, eight. In 2021, six.
“While 13, that is not a number we should ignore, I wouldn’t say that because we had 13 we are going to have record number of homicides the rest of the year,” said interim Police Chief Rade Vanic.
That’s true; you can’t know what the future holds. But with so many homicides, and so many involving firearms, you don’t wait to find out.
The police union’s president, Robert Cavaco, correctly pointed out the need for more officers in a department that is short 300 officers, with nearly 200 closing in on retirement.
Some of the candidates for the next HPD chief, speaking at a PBS Hawaii forum on Thursday, expressed support for putting more officers on patrols and encouraging officers to delay retirement plans.
More manpower, properly deployed, would give HPD greater flexibility to increase intelligence-gathering and perhaps intervene before crimes happen. To that end, HPD will need close and cooperative partners in the Honolulu Prosecutor’s Office and state and federal law enforcement agencies to investigate and prosecute violent criminals more aggressively — especially those using firearms — to make it increasingly clear that crime doesn’t pay.
Of course, the complex circumstances under which crime festers make it more than a law enforcement problem. Social programs that tackle the root causes — poverty, a lack of education and social cohesion, to name a few — can prevent youth from turning to crime. In this cause, we must be both vigilant and ready to help.
