Four species of Hawaiian honeycreepers are likely to become extinct within 10 years, a new study predicts.

The study, published by the University of Hawaii at Hilo Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit, focused on strategies to potentially minimize the risk of extinction for the native ‘akikiki, ‘akeke‘e, kiwikiu and ‘akohekohe, all of which are native to Hawaii.

It estimated the 2021 populations for the birds and found that, including the number of birds in captivity, there are only 86 ‘akikiki, 645 ‘akeke‘e, 137 kiwikiu and 1,657 ‘akohekohe left.

The study estimated when the honeycreepers would become extinct, and provided a year when the species would “most likely” reach extinction, based on expert judgment. The ‘akikiki population is most likely to disappear next year, followed by the kiwikiu in 2027, the ‘akeke‘e in 2028 and the ‘akohekohe in 2032.

The primary threats to the native birds are invasive mosquitoes that carry avian malaria, a deadly disease that mosquitoes spread to the birds. Native birds have retreated to higher elevations where the mosquitoes cannot reach, but climate change is expanding the mosquitoes’ habitat while shrinking the honeycreepers’.

The three broad strategies explored in the study are: the continuous release mosquitoes with a type of bacteria, called Wolbachia, that would lead to the production of infertile eggs; breeding and caring for the birds in captivity; and catching and releasing individuals in safer areas, which can be outside of the birds’ historical ranges.

No specific strategy was recommended, although management of invasive mosquitoes and avian malaria is vital, the state Department of Land and Natural Resources noted in a news release today.

“The only long-term solution for many of the forest birds’ survival is landscape-scale control of the invasive mosquitoes, ” Dr. Earl Campbell, field supervisor with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Pacific Islands Fish and Wildlife Office, said in statement in the DLNR release.

The FWS, U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Department of the Interior were also involved in the report.