The arrival of a delegation from the Japan Association of Travel Agents in Hawaii this week is a positive sign that the recovery of tourism from Japan, the state’s top international market, is finally on an accelerated timeline.

The JATA inspection team was supposed to be in Hawaii last year but the trip was postponed due to the threat of new COVID-19 variants, which delayed the resumption of international travel for both destinations. Indeed most of last year, Japan was in intermittent states of emergency, and the Japanese government was still holding fast to policies that prevented travel across prefectural borders.

JATA Chairperson Hiro­yuki Takahashi told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, following a reception Tuesday at the Hawaii Convention Center, that he expects recovery of Japanese visitors to Hawaii will start this month with the popular Golden Week travel period, with significant returns by summer.

The JATA team’s trip coincides with planning for Golden Week, which this year starts April 29, or Showa Day, which falls on a Friday. The timing is favorable because Japanese travelers who take the following Monday off from work, May 2, will have a total of seven days off. There are national holidays May 3-5 marking Constitution Day, Green Day and Children’s Day.

Takahashi said he expects to see Japanese visitors return to Hawaii this year at 40% of the pre-pandemic 2019 level.

“For 2023 we see our market returning to 2019 levels and that is our road map to recovery,” he said. “My personal forecast is that 2023 will beat 2019 levels. If you ask me why, we have incredible pent-up demand for travel from the Japanese to Hawaii and there will be an explosion once we are able to do that freely.”

Takahashi said it was important for the JATA delegation to come to Hawaii to see “with its own eyes” what customers would have to go through to travel here. They also wanted to ensure the environment in Hawaii was safe, and that Japanese visitors would be welcomed.

“We were able to see how safe and how the people of Hawaii are returning to a sense of normalcy back here in Hawaii. Mask mandates and infection levels are down,” Takahashi said. “It was very good to see this and confirm this and to take this back to our customers and tell them it is safe to come to Hawaii.”

The JATA trip comes amid continued easing of travel policies and COVID-19 restrictions by the Japanese government. On Friday Japan eased travel advisories, moving 106 nations and regions, including the U.S., down to a Level 2 warning, which advises against nonessential travel. Japan had kept the U.S. at Level 3, which strongly advised against travel, since March 2020.

“Because of this the travel companies will be able to create package tours and sell them,” Takahashi said.

On Sunday, Japan also is expected to begin increasing the limit on daily inbound arrivals to 10,000, up from 7,000. The move allows more students and people with business in Japan to enter the country, although tourism to Japan still isn’t allowed.

Eric Takahata, managing director of Hawaii Tourism Japan, said another positive development is that since March 1, Japanese residents have been able to get exempted from Japan’s quarantine if they are boosted and can show proof of a negative result on a COVID-19 PCR test taken within 72 hours of their return home.

Takahashi said JATA sees other bright signs for 2022, including Tourism Expo Japan, which will be held in Tokyo in September for the first time in four years and is expected to be “a major catalyst” for the rebound of travel.

Fall is going to be an important period for the recovery of Japan travel. While the cap on inbound arrivals into Japan remains an impediment, Takahashi said JATA expects it will be lifted at least by October.

“Pre-pandemic inbound was 140,000 arrivals a day; 10,000 is less than 10% of that so we have some work to do,” he said. “If there’s no cap, we will see starting in October near pre-pandemic numbers for the Japanese.”

Once the inbound cap is removed, Takahashi said it will allow inbound tourism to begin returning to Japan.

Further easing of travel restrictions is expected as Japan continues moving closer to normalcy.

On March 21, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida fully lifted the coronavirus restrictions that were in 18 prefectures, including the Tokyo area, which fits into the government’s plan to cautiously expand consumer activity.

Kishida said during an earlier news conference that the lifting of restrictions would allow more domestic travel, as well as parties and larger gatherings for people with vaccination records and negative virus tests.

Gov. David Ige, who greeted the JATA delegation Tuesday night, said after the reception that he has told Japanese officials that Hawaii has had the lowest infection rate in the nation and continues to monitor safety.

“This is really just the next opportunity and milestone as we begin to recover our economy,” Ige said, adding that the return of Japanese tourists is vitally important for many Hawaii businesses.

The road to recovery has been rough. While the U.S. travel market to Hawaii started the year close to pre- pandemic levels, travelers from Japan were still nearly 98% below 2019 and 2020. More than 1.5 million visitors came to Hawaii from Japan in 2019, and spent more than $2 billion.

Only 5,031 visitors from Japan were counted during the first two months of this year, which was significantly lower than the 241,071 Japanese visitors who came during the same period in 2020, before Hawaii had detected its first case of COVID-19. Japan still required those visitors upon their return home to present a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours of arrival and required most to quarantine for at least seven days.

Visitors from Japan spent $19.7 million in the first two months of 2022, compared to nearly $340 million in the first two months of 2020.

“We know that the Japanese travelers are really important and I’m excited about the opportunity to begin restoring travel between Hawaii and Japan,” Ige said. “During the pandemic we all stopped traveling for about two years. Just as much as travel from Japan to Hawaii is really a high priority for the Japanese citizen, I know that many in Hawaii are looking forward to being able to travel to Japan.”

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The Associated Press contributed to this story.