Rough deadlines are in place for critical issues to be dealt with in 2022, but much uncertainty remains over what will happen with COVID-19, development on Mauna Kea, elections for every House and Senate seat, and the future of the city’s troubled rail project.

Cases of COVID-19, driven by the omicron variant, skyrocketed in the waning days of 2021, leading Lt. Gov. Josh Green — an emergency room physician and 2022 gubernatorial candidate — to forecast that case counts will continue to rise until about Jan. 15, followed by a jump in COVID-related hospitalizations beginning 10 days later and lasting through the end of the month and into early February.

He said a new surge in COVID-19-related hospitalizations should lead to a new round of limits on crowd sizes.

“Common sense would dictate that we reduce the size of large gatherings until we’re through the surge,” Green said. “It will have a dampening effect. January economic activity will be slightly depressed but 2022 should be a large year for recovery. I expect the economic recovery to be almost full in 2022, which we’ll need to rebuild society, repair schools, build houses.”

For the long term, Green expects there will be a need for annual COVID-19 vaccinations or booster shots.

State Health Director Dr. Elizabeth Char said Hawaii is beginning 2022 “with caution and optimism.”

“Our caution stems from COVID-19’s unpredictability. Our optimism comes from the majority of people who are doing everything they can to protect one another,” Char said in a statement to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. “We must continue to follow the science in the new year. As the virus changes, so too must we. We must adjust in the way we respond and some of the measures we take.

“What remains constant is that vaccines, masks and smart interaction with one another (distance and small gatherings) will help us through the current surge and give promise of a better tomorrow.”

Mauna Kea management

The fate of the Thirty Meter Telescope and Mauna Kea itself hangs in the balance as answers to key questions about the future of astronomy on Hawaii’s tallest mountain are expected to come into better focus over the coming months.

While the international consortium that is planning the cutting-edge telescope searches for the funding it needs to start construction, the state Legislature is expected to take up a proposal to bring the Mauna Kea summit under new management and even consider the eventual possibility of a mountain free of observatories.

In the meantime, the University of Hawaii will continue its stewardship with an eye toward extending the astronomy district’s lease, which expires in 2033. The UH Board of Regents is scheduled to consider a proposed updated master plan for the 11,300 acres with 13 observatories at its Jan. 20 meeting.

As part of the commitment UH made to help accommodate the TMT, the proposal includes a pledge that none of the five sites where observatories are to be removed by the end of 2033 will be used for future astronomy operations. There are currently 13 telescopes, with four to be decommissioned — or five if the TMT is built.

But a working group formed by the state House released a draft report in December critical of the university and calling for its removal from its management role. Legislation reflecting the document is expected to be introduced during the upcoming legislative session.

Among the report’s recommendations is the creation of a nine-member panel to assume authority over the summit and a plan to return the mauna above the 9,200-foot elevation to its natural state.

Greg Chun, executive director of the UH-Hilo Center for Maunakea Stewardship, noted that many of the criticisms of university oversight are tied to the larger issue of whether people even want astronomy on the mountain.

“That is not a management question,” he said. “That is a policy question that the state of Hawaii has to decide on.”

Wide-open election

Every elected state office — including the governor, lieutenant governor and all 51 House and 25 Senate seats — is up for election in 2022, with all but a handful of incumbent legislators expected to seek reelection.

Party primaries are scheduled for Aug. 13, with the general election Nov. 8.

Some incumbents seeking reelection face additional challenges in possibly having to introduce themselves to new groups of constituents if a current reapportionment plan becomes reality in February.

Legislators such as state Sen. Stanley Chang (D, Diamond Head-Kahala-Hawaii Kai) feel pressure to get more done this legislative session that directly helps residents, especially with the economy rebounding faster than projected and with Gov. David Ige proposing a $1 billion infusion into the state’s Rainy Day Fund.

“I’ll need to earn the votes of everybody, including new voters,” Chang said. “I’ll have to make the case why I should be reelected. The best way to show we’re doing a good job is to do a good job.”

New or increased taxes on residents are unlikely in an election year, said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center.

Instead, pocketbook-­friendly ideas are likely to be given serious consideration this legislative session, such as tax breaks and increasing the earned income tax credit, he said.

“They’re going to want some very concrete things to campaign on,” Moore said.

Chang, a progressive Democrat who chairs the Senate Housing Committee, especially plans to join the growing call for increasing Hawaii’s minimum wage from $10.10 an hour, an issue that was tabled in 2020 as COVID-19 took hold, and to reintroduce a variety of bills designed to increase Hawaii’s inventory of affordable housing, among other issues likely to resonate with younger voters and working families.

“People know when government is changing and government is affecting their lives, and people know when it’s not,” Chang said. “If we can’t deliver, then why should we be reelected?”

Ige is barred by term limits from seeking a third consecutive term, and Green is among the candidates seeking to replace him. Other likely gubernatorial candidates include former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell and businesswoman and former first lady Vicky Cayetano.

Rail back on track

The year ended on a good note for rail, with at least one out-of-state, specialized welder responding to a bid to retrofit track intersections to get too-narrow wheels to fit at the junctions called frogs. The rail proposal also asked for the winning bidder to train a local workforce in manganese welding for long-term track maintenance.

Lori Kahikina, newly named executive director and CEO of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, could not go into specifics since the contract has yet to be awarded but thanked the state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs for granting a state licensing exemption to allow potential bidders to make proposals, since Hawaii has no licensed manganese welders.

Kahikina told the Star-­Advertiser in a statement that she expects the bid to be awarded sometime this month.

The work of the winning bidder is expected to resolve an embarrassing chapter in the rail project when it was discovered over a year ago that the current wheels are a half-inch too narrow at the frogs, forcing each train to slow from 55 mph to 5 mph and throwing off their station arrival times.

“The welding will take approximately two months to complete, and during that time the mainland firm selected will also train a local contractor to do the manganese welding, as per the contract,” Kahikina said in her statement.

The welding is designed to temporarily build up the frogs to accommodate the too-thin wheels, while also allowing wider wheels that are being designed and are expected to be installed this summer.

A long-delayed meeting between the Federal Transit Administration and top city and rail officials remains unscheduled.

But Kahikina said she received a letter from the FTA “expressing their support for HART and their confidence in HART’s ability to build a functional rail system, as shown by: a new Recovery Plan deadline of June 30, 2022; a willingness to entertain an amendment to the FFGA (full funding grant agreement with the federal government); a willingness to release the withheld funds if specific conditions are met; and a willingness to assist HART, per HART’s discretion, with the environmental review process, ridership estimates, safety considerations, and financial and construct-ability elements. The bottom line is the FTA wants to see this project and HART succeed.”

The completion of the welding work on the frogs will allow for a highly anticipated 90-day testing period to begin before turning the rail system over to the city.

“If there are no issues found, then after 90 days, the trial running period will conclude,” Kahikina said. “If an issue arises, that issue must be addressed and then the 90-day trial running period starts over at day one.”

If there are no problems, then HART forecasts that it can turn over the initial line from East Kapolei to Aloha Stadium to the city in the fall.