As the start of the third pandemic year looms, Hawaii residents had hoped — expected, really — that COVID-19 would be receding in the rear-view mirror by now.
It is not. The state, and particularly Oahu, may be barreling toward a collision requiring a sharp turn of the steering wheel to avoid.
Residents appear to be of two minds about the surge in infections, which pushed well into four-digit territory last week. Many are deeply concerned, a natural reaction considering the speed at which the islands’ COVID-19 fortunes have changed.
Others, besieged by understandable pandemic fatigue, seemed to respond with a disinterested shrug. That is how case clusters — such as those at The Republik and The District nightclubs and a holiday event at the Hilton Hawaiian Village — happen. People are just determined to return to a more carefree life, which often means they just don’t care.
They should care, of course, but it will take some retrenchment, especially by Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi, to put a stop to this backsliding.
Blangiardi at least needed to demonstrate that he is willing to quickly reimpose curbs on large indoor gatherings, the most risky types of events. Especially during the holidays, when masks come off quickly as food and alcohol is consumed, and uninhibited socializing happens in close quarters, such unfettered activities can lead to disaster.
He did not seem so inclined on Thursday, after cases shot up above 1,500. At a press briefing called that day, the mayor asserted that what would turn the tide is “personal decisionmaking.”
“We’re not going to shut down the large gatherings right now, even though that’s what’s been recommended,” Blangiardi said. “Because we do have in place Oahu Safe Access — that is our government regulation of the hour.”
Not of this hour, judging by what state Health Director Libby Char was saying only a few minutes earlier. The delta variant that dominated at the start of the surge is now fading, she said, and the “super-infectious” omicron version of the virus is replacing it.
“We want people to celebrate; there’s great value to that, just for people’s mental health,” she said. “But please do it safely, do it smartly, do it in smaller groups.”
Of course, hospitalizations, a primary factor guiding public- health policy, have not yet risen to dangerous levels, but Blangiardi will have to act well before
intensive-care capacity becomes strained. Omicron moves fast. In some places cases double every three days, or even fewer. If Honolulu waits to act until hospitals start scrambling, it may be too late.
It would be safer to prepare for the worst. Honolulu County is far outpacing the neighbor islands in the rapid rise of infections, even more than one might expect given its activity level and population.
Friday’s comparative figures were already frightening. Test positivity statewide shot up to 9%, but on Oahu it was 11.3%. That compares with other counties with positivity rates between 4% and 4.6%.
It’s safe to assume something is wrong in the big city.
The mayor is right to point out that it’s personal responsibility that will spell success ultimately. It will. But there are other tasks to achieve as well. While Blangiardi correctly acknowledges the need to accelerate uptake of booster shots, he still points to the county’s high percentage of what has been defined as the “fully vaccinated” as providing a foundation for pandemic recovery.
Plainly, that’s no longer enough. Char said the vaccine now should be considered a three-dose series, and only a small percentage of Hawaii’s population — less than 25% as of Friday — has received that third shot. As hard as it is to reframe that in the public mind, that’s what has to happen now. Oahu’s foundation, once solid, now needs shoring up.
Besides a vigorous campaign to promote the booster, other developments would help communities navigate more carefully through the landscape of acceptable risk.
One would be the acceleration of rapid-test manufacture and distribution. The Biden administration is working toward increasing availability of the antigen tests. Limitations to their accuracy can be offset if they are taken at the right time — three to five days after exposure, and then again later. Public education campaigns should be adjusted to help people make the most of the at-home tests.
More testing also would help schools stay open; kids wouldn’t need to quarantine as frequently.
For now, the riskiest activities should be restricted, and people should strengthen the tools they have. For example, use high-quality, well-fitting masks such as N-95s or the equivalent, or double-mask.
Have we mentioned washing hands and distancing? That still works.
Yes, at-home testing will be key to assessing risk and avoiding the worst of the social disruption of COVID-19. The advent of at-home pill treatments, which could be a game-changer, is another bright spot on the horizon.
But, as we haven’t reached that spot quite yet, exercising due caution just makes sense.
