At Saturday’s closing session of the United Nations 26th annual climate change meeting (Conference of the Parties, or COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, the conference host, United Kingdom Minister Alok Sharma, declared that the final agreement among the 197 participating countries was ready for consensus approval. But he noted ominously that the “package was held together by a delicate green thread.” After two weeks of divided and intense global negotiations, Sharma warned: “If we pull on that thread, it could all fall apart.”
I followed the complexity of these critical international negotiations over the past two weeks as part of the remarkable “Hawaii ‘ohana” delegation that made the long journey to COP26. That group included Gov. David Ige, elected officials and community leaders, and experts and students from the University of Hawaii. All of us felt compelled, despite the challenges, to participate in this critical COP and, in solidarity with our Pacific Island neighbors, to push the world closer to real and urgent climate solutions.
Sharma’s closing metaphor reflects a frightening truth. For the 40,000 delegates who attended the COP virtually or in-person, watching the daily grind of multilateral negotiations and passionately participating in the hundreds of events and street protests for 14 days was an emotional roller coaster. Most countries rose to the climate crisis challenge and proposed rapid cuts in carbon and methane emissions, greater protection of forests, more resources for adaptation, and inclusion of climate justice. These same hopeful proposals were then watered down or blocked by countries that are the major producers of oil, gas or coal. Supported by over 500 fossil-fuel industry lobbyists — described as the largest single delegation at COP26 — this handful of powerful countries joined with private financial interests to unravel that delicate green thread.
Global negotiations are necessary; climate change is a global threat. But they simply are not moving fast enough to keep pace with the accelerating climate crisis.
According to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), we are way behind the curve to prevent dangerous, unprecedented climate impacts. The world has already warmed by 1.2°C. CAT reports:“[I]t is clear there is a massive credibility, action and commitment gap.” CAT states that, under current policies, “we estimate end-of-century warming to be 2.7°C.” At that point the planet will experience even more devastating wildfires, rainbombs, droughts, coastal flooding and biodiversity loss. Shamefully, the brunt of these changes will be suffered by the most vulnerable members of our global community, those who contributed the least to the climate crisis.
What can Hawaii do? Despite the small size of Hawaii’s land area, if we include carbon emissions from aviation and shipping for products, transportation and tourism, the per capita emissions for Hawaii is outsized. Hawaii can and should make a contribution to the global crisis by demonstrating successful climate solutions — both in eliminating carbon emissions and adapting for inevitable changes.
Our islands have made impressive progress over the past decade (see https://climate.hawaii.gov/hi-mitigation/goals-and-progress/), but we must do more. With the Glasgow agreement falling short of what was needed for a world increasingly on fire and underwater, the pressure is on Hawaii and other subnational jurisdictions to act unilaterally but collectively to secure our future.
Islands are well-positioned to lead the way. We must accelerate climate solutions to 2030 instead of waiting for 2045. Hawaiian Electric, for example, recently committed to reducing power-plant emissions by at least 70% by 2030. A few years ago, some thought that such reductions would be impossible, even by 2045.
Hawaii and the world must do all we can to keep that green thread of Glasgow in place, and, even better, to transform it into a binding rope that rescues our atmosphere, and us, from an unthinkable future.
Denise Antolini is a law professor at the William S. Richardson School of Law, University of Hawaii-Manoa; the views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the law school or university.