It could be the end of the line for rail honcho Andrew Robbins — but Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART) board members who want him off must explain to the public why his departure is required at this critical time, and what it portends for the beleaguered project.

Too much secrecy is shrouding this massive project — Oahu’s largest-ever public works build at $9.2 billion — that will have far-reaching impacts on the island’s development, and on the city’s future financial health.

It is puzzling why HART members think ditching Robbins now would help, rather than hurt, the project.

On Friday, HART board Chairman Toby Martyn emailed HART staffers that its Human Resources Committee will recommend to the board Thursday “not to renew” Robbins’ contract, which expires at year’s end. “It is expected that the Board will concur with the recommendation, and that a permitted interaction group will be formed to devise a leadership transition plan.”

That raises serious questions about why, and why now.

Is this purely a loss of confidence in Robbins’ handling of rail-building contracts? Or is it deeper: loss of confidence in the 20-mile rail project itself? The dismissal of a seemingly capable CEO — in the midst of negotiating a $1.4 billion public-private partnership (P3) contract to finish the last four urban miles of rail and assume operations — should not be occurring without public explanation to taxpayers, who are footing much of the bill.

In its Thursday meeting, HART board members must provide rationales for their decision, which is scheduled to be debated behind closed doors before a possible announcement about Robbins’ release.

Coming to Robbins’ defense though, are at least a dozen prominent people who “firmly believe” that he should continue as HART’s CEO, including former Mayor Mufi Hannemann and City Councilwoman Ann Kobayashi.

HART members must articulate that if it’s not Robbins in charge, how a new CEO would and should improve operations; else, it’s just a futile rearranging of deck chairs. Robbins brings advantages of stability and institutional knowledge at a pivotal time; more precious time, and money, could be lost if a transition causes undue delays.

Since Robbins’ hiring in September 2017, rail’s path continues to be rocky — but there has been progress on guideway-building up through Honolulu’s airport, as well as test runs of electrified rail cars in preparation for a first-half “soft opening.” Unfortunately, that Kapolei-Aloha Stadium opening in December is now delayed, again, to March.

“The most significant schedule risk was the P3 procurement,” noted Hill International Inc., project monitor for the Federal Transit Administration, in June. “This risk has been realized with the recent three-month delay. Continued risk exists until the contract is awarded … ”

Indeed, the P3 process continues to confound, leading to award delays, a procurement exec’s resignation amid disagreement with Robbins, alarming reports of at least one overbudget bid and outsized secrecy that leaves taxpayers in the dark. And, of course, a U.S. Department of Justice looms large, with subpoenas issued last year for documents and employees’ testimony. Much of the investigation into how rail costs ballooned to $9.2 billion from $5.2 billion seems focused on pre-Robbins transactions, but remains an anxiety weighing heavily on rail.

Add to this ongoing turmoil Hawaii’s sad economic standstill: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused two lockdowns for Oahu, halting most businesses and their revenue-generating activity. Plunging general excise tax and hotel-room tax revenues directly affect funding for rail: Just two months ago, HART’s financial officer projected a $450 million hit to rail from Hawaii’s economic losses.

In January 2019, after a behind-closed-doors review of Robbins’ first year, results of that evaluation were shared publicly by the HART board, with Robbins’ consent. Today, with the stakes much higher, such openness is due taxpayers about where Robbins went so wrong as CEO, so that adjustments can be made, as much as possible, for the betterment of the rail project.