Businessman Rick Blangiardi and former U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa would appear to be the most likely survivors of the Aug. 8 primary election to advance to the head-to-head contest for Honolulu mayor in November, according to the results of the Honolulu Star- Advertiser Hawaii Poll.
Blangiardi and Hanabusa are running neck-and-neck atop the poll, with former insurance executive Keith Amemiya, former Mayor Mufi Hannemann and Honolulu City Councilwoman Kym Pine clustered in a second grouping.
But with 20% of those polled indicating they are undecided on the mayor’s race, and a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, the numbers suggest all five of the major candidates still have a legitimate shot at moving on in Hawaii’s first all-mail-in ballot election.
The Hawaii Poll was conducted July 20-22 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C., and included 400 likely voters. Participants were selected randomly from a Honolulu voter registration list that included both land line and cellular telephone numbers.
Blangiardi was the choice of 27% of the men polled, significantly higher than Hanabusa’s 17% and Hannemann’s 13%. A sizable 18% of men, however, are still undecided. Hanabusa was the choice of 23% of the women participating in the survey while Blangiardi was second with 16% and Amemiya third with 15%. The number of women still undecided about the race was 21%.
While city elections are nonpartisan, Hanabusa fared best among voters who identified themselves as Democrats, with support from 27% of those polled. Hanabusa has been among the most influential Democrats in the state for decades, both in Congress and in the state Senate where she served for a time as Senate president.
Amemiya, who identifies himself as a Democrat, was second among Democrats with 19%, while Blangiardi, who insists he is and always has been an independent, was third among Democrats. Some 20% of Democrats said they are undecided.
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Blangiardi, who’s receiving a rare endorsement from former GOP Gov. Linda Lingle, was the choice of 33% of those identifying as Republicans while Pine, a one-time Republican who was among those who resigned from the party after President Donald Trump was elected, finished second with 14%.
Hannemann was favored by 13% of Republicans and Hanabusa by 12%. Only 14% of Republicans are undecided.
Blangiardi also finished No. 1 among those identifying as independents, with 25% planning to vote for him. But an eye-opening 28% of independents are undecided. Hanabusa was the second choice with 15% and Hannemann third with 10%.
Blangiardi and Hanabusa both said the poll numbers are consistent with their own polling.
“Colleen and I have been neck and neck … there’s always been one or two points between us,” Blangiardi said. “That has been consistent.”
He said the results show voters are receptive to his message that being a political novice is not a disqualifier for becoming mayor.
“People are perceiving that I’m a candidate who’s not playing insider politics,” said Blangiardi, the former general manager of Hawaii News Now. “This is a major leadership responsibility and I believe people at this point in time, especially with the pandemic and where we are … people want and need a sense of real change from a leader who’s coming across as real.”
Poll participant and Aina Haina resident Michael Hansen, 69, said he likes Blangiardi because he’s not a career politician. “I see him as someone who has been successful in his life, and he doesn’t need to curry favor with different people if he ever gets elected,” said Hansen, who is in maritime consulting.
Hansen said he also likes that Blangiardi appears to be the top candidate most likely to shut down the city’s $9.2 billion rail project if it proves unfeasible.
Hanabusa, who’s touted her experience at the federal, state and city levels of government, said “the results show experience matters during a crisis and voters are connecting with my plan to rebuild our economy, support our communities and restore confidence in government.”
While she finished top among women voters and Democrats, “I believe that I have wide support among all of the (voter) matrix and I want to thank all of the voters for that,” Hanabusa said.
Waianae resident Dorien McClellan, 79, who participated in the poll, said she and her husband support Hanabusa because they know her and know her work.
“I find her honorable and reliable, and I trust her,” said McClellan, who is retired. “And I trust her especially with our city at this time; she gets things done.”
Amemiya said The Hawaii Poll numbers are inconsistent with polls he’s seen showing “a much tighter race.”
“I’m confident that we’re gaining momentum and we can feel it on the ground and wherever we go across the island,” Amemiya said. “I firmly believe that people want change and a new kind of leadership so I encourage everyone to vote and let their voices be heard.”
The poll was taken in the days right after a super PAC began running negative ads against Amemiya highlighting his relationships with Democratic leaders and calling into question his message that he brings fresh ideas.
Poll participant and Pearl City resident Kevin Dusendschon, 48, said he supports Amemiya because he appears to be the candidate best able to bring parties together to collaborate. Dusendschon, who works in the maritime industry, said he’s not bothered by Amemiya’s ties to political leaders because “everywhere on Oahu … someone’s related to someone somewhere.”
Hannemann issued a statement when asked to comment about the poll results.
“A 400-sample poll does not decide elections, people do,” Hannemann said. “The message we’re getting is that people want the most tested and experienced person to take on this crisis. A majority of ballots are still out there. We feel we have the momentum and we’ll continue to reach out to voters until the end.”
Kaneohe resident Peter Flachsbart, 76, said he supports Hannemann partly because of his experience dealing with rail. “Given our current situation, we need someone with some job experience,” he said.
While some candidates have touted the need to diversify the economy, Flachsbart, an associate professor of urban planning at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said the state and city have been trying to do that for years, and that he agrees with Hannemann that tourism will remain the state’s leading industry for a while to come.
Pine said the poll is “confusing” because it is not consistent with three others she’s seen, including one paid for by her campaign.
“Those three other polls show we are in a very strong position and that we will make it to November,” Pine said.
Ewa Beach resident Laurie Suarez, 44, who is in the real estate industry, said she’s been a constituent of Pine’s and is pleased with her work helping to clean Oneula Beach Park and supporting public schools.
A sampling of respondents showed that despite favoring different candidates, they all want a solid leader who can guide Oahu through the economic troubles caused by the pandemic.
Hawaii Kai resident Jenne Snell, 49, said she’s undecided and intends to do more research on the leading candidates in the coming days. Snell, who is in sales, described herself as a conservative-leaning Libertarian who is tired of a single, ruling political party dominating key positions in local government.
Honolulu mayoral race poll by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd
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