Hawaii auto sales fell for the fifth straight quarter and are headed for their second down year in a row amid slowing growth in the state economy.

New-vehicle registrations fell 0.5% in the third quarter and were down 4.4% year to date through September, according to a report scheduled for release today by Hawaii Auto Outlook. The forecast for new-vehicle registrations calls for the full-year total to reach 54,250, a slight uptick from the 54,100 projected in Hawaii Auto Outlook’s midyear report.

“Higher new vehicle prices and sluggish income growth have contributed to make a new vehicle purchase more difficult for many consumers,” Jeffrey Foltz, editor of Hawaii Auto Outlook, wrote in the report, produced for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. “Loan terms are getting longer and auto-related debt levels have risen during the past several years, signs of a new vehicle market that has reached its peak.”

Hawaii registrations in the third quarter fell to 13,879 from 13,944 in the year- earlier quarter. The downturn ran counter to the U.S. market, which saw registrations rise 1.2% during the same time frame. Through nine months, registrations fell to 41,281 from 43,189.

In the last five quarters, auto sales have been down year over year 0.5%, 8.1%, 4.5%, 1.1% and 12.6%, respectively. The last time auto sales were up was in the second quarter of 2018 when they gained 1.2%. Despite the down year expected for 2019, new-vehicle registrations are expected to be over 50,000 for the sixth straight year. The last time new-vehicle registrations fell beneath that threshold was in 2013 at 48,705.

“Consumer attitudes have deteriorated somewhat over the past few months,” Foltz said. “And although overall levels are still strong, there are plenty of things for consumers to be concerned about. Trade policy, the impeachment proceedings, and the 2020 presidential election are just a few things weighing on consumers’ minds. GDP growth is positive and employment rates are low, but concerns about the future can be a deterrent for making major financial purchases, such as a new vehicle.”

Light trucks (which include vans, SUVs and pickups) maintained their large market share in Hawaii over cars last quarter with 68.8% of consumers opting for the larger vehicles because of more visibility and additional room for storage. That is up from a 67.9% market share in 2018.

Foltz said some positive influences could spur new vehicle sales, such as lower interest rates that could lead to lower finance and lease payments, and a low state unemployment rate (currently 2.7%) that also could boost sales.

In addition, he said with the average age of vehicles on the road exceeding 10 years, today’s new cars and trucks are far superior to the average 10-year-old vehicle.

“Advanced safety technologies, which were once expensive options exclusive to luxury brands, are now standard features on many vehicles,” Foltz said. “In addition, an ever-expanding array of new products fulfilling every conceivable market niche and powertrain type will continue to entice consumers into the new vehicle market.”

While new-vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another month. The data are based on county Department of Motor Vehicles registrations.

Toyota was the best-selling brand in Hawaii during the first three quarters of the year with a 27% market share, followed by Honda at 14.7%, Nissan at 8.6%, Ford at 6.8% and Chevrolet at 5.6%.

The state’s top-selling cars year to date were the Toyota Corolla (11%), Honda Civic (9.9%), Tesla Model 3 (8.9%), Toyota Camry (7.3%), Honda Accord (5%), Honda Fit (3.8%), Kia Soul (3.4%), Nissan Sentra (2.9%), Nissan Leaf (2.6%), Toyota Prius (2.1%) and Mazda 3 (2.1%).

The hybrid, plug-in and electric vehicle market share was 9% in the third quarter, down slightly from the second quarter. In 2018 the market share for the category was 7.7%.