With the 2020 primary election day now just over 10 months away, the latest Hawaii Poll suggests some likely or potential Honolulu mayoral candidates have their work cut out for them.
The vacancy caused by Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s impending departure is drawing interest from a diverse field of hopefuls. Pollsters asked Oahu voters whether they had favorable or unfavorable opinions of Charles Djou, Mufi Hannemann, Doug Chin, Colleen Hanabusa, Kymberly Pine, Keith Amemiya, Ron Menor and John Carroll.
Thirty-eight percent of poll respondents said they think favorably of former U.S. Rep. Djou, who in 2016 collected more than 135,000 votes and came within 13,000 votes of derailing current Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s reelection bid. He drew an unfavorable opinion from 21%.
Former state Attorney General Chin told the Star-Advertiser that he has no intention of running for any elected office in 2020 and is focused on his family and personal life, and 41% of poll participants said they didn’t recognize his name. He drew a favorable rating from 23% while 17% think of him unfavorably.
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Hawaii Poll conducted Sept. 12-17 by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy surveyed 525 people who identified themselves as registered voters on Oahu. The poll numbers carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Djou said he hasn’t decided whether he will run and doesn’t expect to make a decision until sometime after the new year. “I’m very flattered and honored that the people of Oahu remember my message in the last election that we really need change from the corruption and waste that has gone on at City Hall for far too long under the Caldwell administration,” Djou said.
Former Mayor Hannemann, who held the third-floor corner office at Honolulu Hale from 2005 to 2010, got the second-highest favorable recognition poll rating at 29%.
But Hannemann, president and CEO of the Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association, also had the highest percentage of poll respondents — 41% — who said their opinion of him was unfavorable.
Hannemann said he was surprised to have been included in the poll “when I have not indicated that I’m officially running.”
Former U.S. Rep. Hanabusa, who defeated Djou for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District seat in 2010, drew a favorable rating from 23% of respondents. Hanabusa left the House in 2018 to run unsuccessfully for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against incumbent Gov. David Ige. Thirty- five percent said their opinion of Hanabusa was unfavorable.
“I’ve been in office for a period of time, and also because of the positions that I’ve taken, I’m not surprised people have an opinion one way or the other,” she said.
Favorability is at 20% for Councilwoman Pine, who announced in late 2017 that she intends to run, while only 10% think unfavorably of her.
“I’m the only person in that poll that has not run for higher office and has not been advertising for higher office,” Pine said. “I can’t wait to introduce myself to more people about the accomplishments we’ve made for our community,” she said.
Keith Amemiya, who is seeking public office for the first time, got a 15% favorable poll rating, while a whopping 72% said they didn’t recognize his name.
“Voters are ready for a change in leadership to someone new like myself who has a proven track record, rather than a career politician,” he said. Amemiya is best known as a former executive director of the Hawaii High School Athletic Association and is credited for bringing together OIA and ILH leadership.
Councilman Menor, whose ratings are 10% favorable and 19% unfavorable, said he has yet to start campaigning or spreading the word that he is planning a run.
“My poll numbers reflect the fact that most voters are not aware yet of my role in passing the bill to regulate illegal vacation rentals, and I look forward to educating them about this and other achievements and explaining my vision,” he said.
Carroll, whose favorable rating came in at 8%, unfavorable at 16%, was unrecognized by 45%. He said that the poll numbers don’t reflect what he is hearing from voters on a daily basis.
“While this poll may be accurate today, we have a year to let the voters know … and many already do know, how dysfunctional, corrupt and ineffective the current leaders in federal, state and City and County of Honolulu government are,” he said.
Correction: The Hawaii Poll surveyed 525 people on Oahu earlier this month. An earlier version of this story and in the Friday print edition said 500 people on Oahu were surveyed. Also, City Councilwoman Kymberly Pine’s first name was misspelled.
