Not instead of, but maybe in addition to, the current practice of worrying about a hurricane a week or more before science can say whether it’s going to even come close to the Hawaiian islands, what if there was a more practical, behavior-oriented way of evaluating storms in the Pacific?
It used to be we’d start talking about hurricanes when the threat seemed possible and the concern was warranted. Now, we’re worried over a cluster of lines on a satellite map way down by Baja that might or might not turn into a hurricane.
It’s easy to get burned out on unwarranted fear. Instead of the breathless, almost hopeful hype of possible inundation and mass destruction, it would be good to know when to take a hurricane seriously.
OK, yes, one should always take a hurricane seriously, but when the thing is closer to Mexico than Hilo and the cone of possibility doesn’t even stretch into the Central Pacific yet, it’s not time to get everybody riled up. If we get worked up over everything, we might not have proper perspective if the “big one” really does show up.
So perhaps there could be a way of categorizing Pacific storms based on their impact to Hawaii and what we should currently be doing.
For example:
Phase 1: Ooh, there’s something way on the right side of the map of the Pacific. Better check back in a few days.
Phase 2: Aw dang. It has a name now. Time to pay attention, but don’t cancel the family camp yet.
Phase 3: I’m not liking the far edge of that cone of uncertainty. Louise, we still have beef jerky and trail mix?
Phase 4: Uh-oh, people are canceling outdoor events. Tell the kids we’re not going camping this weekend.
Phase 5: Lines at Costco gas, pickup trucks filled with pallets of water, people buying plywood for their windows and the governor is on live TV. OK, now is the time to get scared.
Phase 6: Well, what do you know? That storm broke apart like a raw egg in hot miso soup. All clear. See if we can un-cancel the canceled plans.
Phase 7: People are making Guy Hagi memes. Guy Hagi is laughing it off.
Phase 8: Uh-oh, there’s something else way down on the right side of the satellite map of the Pacific. Better check back in a few days.
Clearly, no public agency is going to come up with any sort of guide like this. It has to be something each person considers for themselves: When to be watchful, when to get busy, when to hunker down.
In the Information Age, people often struggle to manage and prioritize the amount of available information. The interpretation of data often errs on the side of caution, especially where weather is concerned and audience impact is measured. But there is danger in getting worked up over everything and not fully realizing who to believe, what to look for and how to prepare.
Reach Lee Cataluna at 529-4315 or lcataluna@staradvertiser.com.
