The first named storm of the East Pacific hurricane season made its debut this week: Tropical Storm Alvin, a weakling that is expected to fall apart safely distant from Hawaiian waters.

But the season has just begun. It began on May 15 for the East Pacific, where many of Hawaii’s hurricanes are spawned; for the Central Pacific, June 1. Both seasons end Nov. 30. And since this is an El Nino year, with warmer water temperatures conducive to tropical cyclones, there is a 70% chance of higher-than-normal activity — “essentially what we would typically expect in an El Nino year,” said Christopher Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), which tracks major storms approaching the islands.

Brenchley, the center’s director since 2016, was at the helm during last August’s Hurricane Lane, which caused major flooding and millions of dollars in damage in the state, even without a direct hit. The following month came Olivia, a tropical cyclone that made landfall on Maui and Lanai and soaked Oahu with torrential rains.

Lane, at one point a Category 5 megastorm, eventually turned west, away from the islands, weakened by vertical wind shear — a phenomenon that El Nino diminishes.

“Hurricane Lane was in a cone of uncertainty even as it was expected to turn west,” Brenchley said. “So if it hadn’t turned for another day and drifted further north, that would have been much worse for Oahu.”

CPHC, which tracks storms from 140 degrees West longitude to the Dateline and from the equator northward, forecasts five to eight tropical cyclones for the Central Pacific this year.

Better tools have improved the center’s ability to forecast the strength and direction of storms; an upgrade to the Global Forecast System (GFS) was tested during Lane, with promising results.

Even so, technology won’t be enough to save an unprepared and underinformed public.

“We can put out the best forecasts ever, and if it is not communicated and it’s not received by the people who the forecast is intended for, then it doesn’t have that value,” Brenchley said. So social scientists use surveys to help the National Weather Service (NWS) anticipate what the public needs to know.

Brenchley, who came to Hawaii in 2007, lives with his wife and two sons on Oahu’s North Shore. He grew up in Colorado and Utah, spending a lot of time outdoors, skiing, camping, biking and rock climbing.

“I was always really aware of the weather and it fascinated me how quickly it could change in those places,” he said. “The extremes of nature drew me into pursuing a career trying to predict it.”

Question: What’s the difference between a tropical cyclone and hurricane?

Answer: Tropical cyclone is the category of low-pressure systems with tropical characteristics, which encompasses all hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions. We use the term tropical cyclone as a way to talk about all of these threatening storm systems around the tropical parts of the earth.

A hurricane has a specific definition in the United States, based solely on its maximum wind speeds being greater than 74 miles per hour.

Q: How does CPHC forecast the strength and direction of tropical cyclones?

A: We rely heavily on satellite observations to analyze the current location and intensity trends of tropical cyclones. In the vast, data-sparse Pacific Ocean, these satellite observations are vital to knowing what is going on currently. These vital observations are fed into computer models that simulate how the atmosphere and cyclone will interact in the future. With more accurate observations, the computer model will have a better chance at predicting future conditions. In addition, as more advanced computer modeling techniques are developed, these help overcome some of the approximation errors that are introduced when trying to model the Earth’s atmosphere. Accuracy in forecasting the track has improved incrementally over the years, as we now can forecast a cyclone track five days away with a similar degree of accuracy as a two-day cyclone track forecast 25 years ago.

Q:How does the just-released upgrade to the GFS fit in?

A: The best way to talk about specific models like that is they’re a piece of a larger puzzle of information that we use to put together a forecast. No individual model directly influences the forecast or directly results in a change in forecast, but can influence the direction that we move in the forecast. (There’s) the European model, the U.S. GFS model. The Navy runs a model, there’s a Canadian model. We like to keep track of biases or trends in those models.

But what we’ve continually found is the most accurate, the best way, to use all those models, is in an ensemble. So when you put them all together, you can get a consensus of all these models and that tends to beat the individual members.

Q:Would current forecasting methods and technology have given residents more warning about 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, which turned sharply north and hit Kauai?

A: We did have satellites in 1992, but we were getting maybe one shot every hour and no resolution, as it’s very grainy information. So you can still deduce: Does it have an eye? Is it a hurricane? But you’re trying to piece that together and figure out its current movement. It becomes more difficult versus today’s technology.

(Now) we’re getting updates on the order of every five or 10 minutes, and the detail in the imagery is a lot better. With more detailed imagery, you can see those shifts in motion. The other aspect is the computer modeling, which is vastly improved. Certainly from that aspect, there would have been at least some of those ensembles that would say, look out, this thing might make a hard right.

One thing remains the same: There is still uncertainty when it comes to predicting where and how strong a hurricane could be in the future, and the Hawaiian islands are vulnerable to a direct impact from a major Category 4 or even Category 5 hurricane. Thus, even as forecasts have become more accurate, it is still important to prepare for the worst-case scenario, as Iniki showed in 1992.

Q:What are you doing to improve communications with the public?

A: To fulfill the mission to protect life, property and commerce, the National Weather Service is continually working with our core partners in the emergency management community to develop products that will help the public and community decisionmakers take the most appropriate actions based on the latest forecast information. A recent example: Forecasts for the most likely time of arrival for tropical storm winds. We encourage the public to use these to complement their own emergency action plans, so that they can have enough time to be prepared before the conditions become too dangerous.

Q:Does Hawaii’s geography have any bearing on how the public should interpret forecasts?

A: Our steep terrain does bring unique hazards. People on high ridges (and high-rise buildings), should realize that winds will accelerate over those high points, creating more damaging effects. If you are near a steep mountain slope, the copious heavy rainfall from a tropical cyclone can result in mudslides or rockslides, and if you are near a natural stream channel, these will fill rapidly with fast-flowing water, leaving you scrambling for higher ground. Road infrastructure is very vulnerable from these impacts and along coastlines where high pounding surf could erode the shoreline, taking roads and power lines out as well.

In addition, the Hawaiian islands are exposed to these type of conditions so infrequently that neither natural nor man-made environments have been stress-tested, so the damage would be unprecedented and the cleanup would take a very long time.

Q:What should the public know about this hurricane season?

A: As we prepare for another active hurricane season in the central Pacific, we urge everyone to have an emergency plan now, so that you are ready for the devastating impacts that a tropical cyclone could bring to the state of Hawaii. It is essential that you know where and how to get official information, even in the event of a power failure, and that you have your emergency supply kit ready well before any storms threaten. Remember that preparation is a continual process, not a one-time event.