What technology developments will affect Hawaii residents and small businesses in 2019?

As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” I’m not a fortuneteller, but I can suggest some developments to look for.

For starters, Apple is dealing with the first drop in sales of the iPhone. This is also the case with all smartphones. People are not rushing to buy the latest models primarily because their “new, improved” features aren’t significantly that much more advanced than their current phone. Other reasons for the slowdown in sales include rising prices for high-end phones, a slowing global economy, political trade wars and a growing concern with sustainability.

How will this play out in Hawaii? Locally we already are seeing the smartphone providers reducing or eliminating large discounts for phone upgrades.

Another trend for the next few years will be a focus on artificial intelligence-based services. This uses the existing smartphone base that covers most of the population in most countries. China is very much the leader in this space. It has bypassed both the old telephone technology and the personal computer by developing almost all services for mobile use with smartphones.

For example, China’s Alipay service is reporting 230 million daily active users. That is nearly the entire population of the U.S. From the Alipay site on your phone, you can call a cab, order movie tickets, make doctor appointments, book a hotel, pay utility bills, use it for in-store payments and even receive government tax reimbursements.

There will be continued expansion in AI-based services, but most will not be visible. For example, calls for services and information are initially processed by AI systems. (Try calling Spectrum or any other large company and you’ll get a computer voice on the other end of the line to sort through your questions.) Some systems are now so humanlike that you might confuse them for people.

This is most obvious in Alexa for Amazon and Hey Google. These are now training us in how to work with AI-based systems. (“Hey Google” responds more pleasantly to requests that include the word “please.”)

Locally, look for more AI integrated locally in hospitality industry booking systems and other reservation-based businesses.

In the Aloha State broadband is also on the cusp of big changes.

We have 96 percent broadband service to home and businesses and 100 percent wireless broadband service for our state. However, this is at only a 23.9 megabit-per-second speed, which is a little under the U.S. average. Given that the U.S. ranks only 20th worldwide, there is a lot of focus on increasing this speed.

The question is how best to deliver it.

This is known as the “last mile” in the data communication industry. Fiber to the home is one option. However, getting from the regional data transport via backbone fiber-optic cables is expensive.

The other option is to go fully wireless, which is generally called 5G. (We discussed this two years ago in Tech View when the state Legislature was dealing with zoning and standards issues to make the new, small 5G sites possible here.)

5G service probably will not fully replace cable or fiber to the home, but it is as fast and much cheaper to install.

But when will it come to Hawaii?

In December. AT&T and Verizon were involved in a 5G demonstration on Maui that was less than impressive. I believe there is a lot of work still to do here before the new technology is rolled out.

Verizon expects to provide 5G service to 20 cities early this year, and AT&T projects 24 cities nationally with the service also this year. What part Hawaii will play in the scenario is not yet clear, but it’s certainly coming.

Stay tuned.

Mike Meyer is chief information officer for Honolulu Community College. Reach him at mmeyer@hawaii.edu.