What information technology developments will affect Hawaii residents and small businesses in 2019?

Making predictions is always difficult, particularly if the future is involved, as Yogi Berra once said. While I can’t say what will happen, I can certainly suggest some developments to watch for in 2019.

For starters, Apple is dealing with the first drop in sales of the iPhone. This is also the case with all smartphones. People are not rushing to buy the latest phone, primarily because it is not that different from their current phone. The many reasons for that include a slowing global economy, political trade wars and a growing concern with sustainability.

How will this play out in Hawaii? Locally we are already seeing the smartphone providers reducing or eliminating large discounts for phone upgrades.

Another trend for the next few years will be a focus on artificial intelligence (AI)-based services. This uses the existing smartphone base that covers most of the population in most countries. China is very much the leader in this space. It has bypassed both the old telephone technology and the personal computer by developing almost all services for mobile use with smartphones.

For example, China’s Alipay service is reporting 230 million daily active users. That is nearly the entire population of the U.S. From the Alipay site on your phone, you can call a cab, order movie tickets, make medical appointments, pay utility bills, use it for in-store payments and even receive government tax reimbursements. This service is also available in 27 countries.

There will be great expansion in AI-based services, but most of these will not be visible. We are already dealing with AI every day as our calls for services and information are initially processed by AI systems. These are now so good that they are almost invisible and are often assumed to be people.

This is most obvious in Alexa for Amazon and Hey Google. These are now training us in how to work with AI-based systems. (“Hey Google” responds more pleasantly to requests that include the word ‘please.’)

Locally, look for more AI in reservation systems and other applications.

In the Aloha State broadband is also on the cusp of big changes.

We have 96 percent broadband service to home and businesses and 100 percent wireless broadband service for our state. However, this is at only a 23.9 megabits- per-second speed, which is a little under the U.S. average. Given that the U.S. ranks only 20th worldwide, there is a lot of focus on increasing this speed.

The question is how best to deliver it.

This is known as the “last mile” in the data communication industry. Fiber to the home is one option. However, getting from the regional data transport via backbone fiber-optic cables is expensive.

The other option is fully wireless and is generally called 5G. You might recall I discussed this two years ago in Tech View (as the state Legislature was dealing with zoning and standards issues to make the new, small 5G sites possible here).

5G service will probably not fully replace cable or fiber to the home, but it is as fast and much cheaper to install. But when will it come to Hawaii?

In December AT&T and Verizon were involved in a 5G demonstration on Maui that was less than impressive. I believe there is a lot of work still to do here before the new technology is rolled out.

Verizon expects to provide 5G service to 20 cities early this year, and AT&T projects 24 cities nationally with the service also this year. What part Hawaii will play in the scenario is not yet clear.

Stay tuned.

Mike Meyer is chief information officer for Honolulu Community College. Reach him at mmeyer@hawaii.edu.