Sluggishness in Oahu’s housing market last year carried over into 2019 and broadened a bit, according to data released Wednesday.
The Honolulu Board of Realtors reported that both sales volume and median prices for all types of previously owned housing declined in January — something that hasn’t happened since 2010 in the wake of a national recession.
Slowing sales volume had been the norm last year, but the January report hints that seven years of continuous modest growth in prices may be at risk.
The median price decline for single-family homes in January was only slight. It slipped 0.6 percent to $767,500 from $772,000 in the same month last year.
For condominiums, the median price fell 7.2 percent to $399,000 last month from $430,000 a year earlier. This decrease was relatively big. However, the year-ago figure represented a record at the time. January’s median condo price was about flat with the median price in December, which was $398,500.
Median prices in the next few months will help discern whether any shift in the trend for modestly higher home prices on Oahu appears.
“When assessing the real estate market, it’s important to consider the long view, as monthly data alone can be misleading,” Scott Higashi, CEO of local residential real estate firm Locations, said in a statement.
HOME SALESThe number of homes sold on Oahu in January with the median price and percentage change from the same month last year.
HOMES
Sales | Median | Price
>> 2019 | 246 | $767,500
>> 2018 | 252 | $772,000
>> Change: -2.4% | -0.6%
CONDOS
Sales | Median | Price
>> 2019 | 326 | $399,000
>> 2018 | 374 | $430,000
>> Change: -12.8% | -7.2%
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors
Higashi describes median prices as “stabilized” based on the last 12 months of data through January.
Jenny Brady, an agent at Hokua Hawaii Realty LLC and president this year of the Honolulu Board of Realtors, also used neutral terms to describe the market.
“Conditions point towards a balanced market for both buyers and sellers,” she said in the trade association report.
Economists at the University of Hawaii in September forecast that Oahu median prices this year would rise 2.3 percent for single-family homes and 3.9 percent for condos.
The median price is a point at which half the sales were at a lower price and half at a higher price.
Factors that tend to weaken prices include reduced demand and increased supply, and both have been occurring in recent months.
The number of single-family home sales dipped 2.4 percent to 246 in January from 252 a year earlier. Condo sales dropped 12.8 percent to 326 from 374 in the same period. That followed decreases last year of 7.7 percent for single- family homes and 2.5 percent for condos after three consecutive years of increases.
On the supply side, inventory last year was mainly higher than the year before, and since late last year homes started taking longer to sell.
In January, the number of homes added to the market spiked with 519 single-family homes and 867 condos newly listed for sale. A spike in January on the heels of a dip in December is a typical seasonal factor. Still, there were more new listings last month than there were a year earlier when 730 new condo listings and 426 new single-family home listings were produced.
A rise in mortgage interest rates is another factor that can depress sales and prices. The average 30-year fixed rate recently has been around 4.5 percent, which is down from nearly 5 percent late last year but is up from 4 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent for much of 2016.
Sales counted in the January report reflect transactions that closed in the same month and typically stem from contracts signed one to three months earlier. The report also covers only resales, which excludes sales of new homes by developers.