So far, the big surprise of this political year is former Congressman Ed Case jumping into the race for the 1st Congressional District.
Although procrastination has never been recognized as a welcome political trait, Case’s last-minute entrance sends a jolt through the field in the Democratic primary.
The reason why, is name identification.
Simply put: Before winning an election, candidates need voter approval — and before getting voters to like you, voters need to know who the heck you are.
As shocking as it seems to members of the state Legislature and the City Council, most members of the general public don’t know the names or faces of their state representative, senator or Council member. And they are not likely to be making up flash cards to start testing themselves.
When the Star-Advertiser surveyed 1st Congressional District voters in March, there were four major congressional candidates. Only veteran city and state politician, state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, had decent voter ID numbers; just 6 percent said they didn’t recognize her.
Lt. Gov. and former Attorney General Doug Chin, City Council Chairman Ernie Martin and state Rep. Kaniela Ing all had “did not recognize” numbers between 30 and 59 percent.
Since then, state Rep. Beth Fukumoto has also jumped into that race. She might have a tad more name recognition because she used to be a Republican: The Mililani state rep had refused to endorse Donald Trump and publicly criticized him to the extent that she was loudly booed at a GOP speech before she said “that’s it,” and left the party.
Fukumoto has won a major endorsement by getting the approval of the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly, the union for UH professors. They described Fukumoto as understanding the issues facing UH, “along with the leadership skills you have always demonstrated, stood out above all of the other candidates for this office.”
Chin had won some publicity for facing off against the Trump administration in legal battles over immigration and net neutrality, but he is far from being a household name.
Martin has won the endorsement of SHOPO, the police union.
Kim, however, has years of recognition, as she served in the state House, City Council and now state Senate. She’s run the Senate money committee and also been Senate president. When Kim last ran for Congress, she won the endorsement of the well-coordinated political action committee, Emily’s List, although she eventually lost to the late U.S. Rep. Mark Takai.
In that 2014 race, Takai, a low-profile state legislator, won in a crowded field with 52,700 votes.
In some ways, Case looks strong because in past races, even in losing attempts, he has taken more than 45,000 votes.
On Oahu in his 2012 U.S. Senate race loss against Mazie Hirono, Case had 72,000 votes. His Oahu tally against the late U.S. Sen. Dan Akaka in 2016 was 77,000. And in the 2010 special election for the 1st Congressional seat, Case came in third with 47,000. So Oahu voters are familiar with Case and a significant number are willing to vote for him.
Along the way, Case now will have to measure his politics with the new era of trash-talking Trumpian politics and give voters a reason to separate him from the pack
If the challenge for most of the field is just to get noticed and then remembered, the task before Case is to first raise the money to run a campaign on more than shoe leather.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.