HOUSTON >> With the biggest event in American sports only hours away, there’s a sense of excitement in the nation’s fourth-largest city when you walk along the downtown streets.
Fans of the New England Patriots and upstart Atlanta Falcons filled this city’s establishments as only a Super Bowl can. The 51st event to determine the champion of the National F ootball League has dominated local television and radio airways as well as the Houston Chronicle newspaper.
Every storyline imaginable has been pursued and analyzed more carefully than a presidential election. Can Tom Brady and Bill Belichick add one for the thumb? Or will Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn put their first on the ring finger of their right hands?
We will know later tonight and say we knew it all along no matter which team plows into the end zone more times or manages to knock the football through the uprights often enough to secure a victory that means as much as anything in a sporting event.
History tells us being here before on the grandest stage of them all does matter. Since 2001, the Patriots are a remarkable 182-58. In their franchise history, they have been to the Super Bowl an unprecedented nine times, winning four — in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2014.
New England has captured nine American Football Conference championships dating back to 1985 and 18 division titles since the merger, with the first occurring in 1978. They are the New York Yankees of football and are loathed outside their fan base much like their MLB counterparts.
Owner Robert Kraft told the Chronicle after his captains were booed off the field during opening-night festivities at Minute Maid Park that “Jealousy and envy are incredible diseases. We try to take it and turn it into something positive.”
Prior to the AFC Championship game with the Pittsburgh Steelers the local Post-Gazette newspaper labeled New England as the Evil Empire. And when you consider all of the things that have swirled around this program through the years you can understand the label.
It will be hard for the local Houston Texans fan base to pull for their AFC colleagues, so don’t be surprised if the overflow crowd gathering today at NRG Stadium that dwarfs its Astrodome neighbor is decidedly pulling for Atlanta.
And what about these Falcons? Only a three-point underdog vs. the dynasty of the NFL, Atlanta has quietly fashioned one of the most prolific offenses in professional football history. Ryan and Co. finished second in the league in yards gained (fifth rushing and third passing) and first in points scored.
Ryan is first in the league in quarterback rating. Brady is second. The teams tied for first in fewest turnovers with 11. They are also among the best in forcing turnovers, with New England at plus 12 (third in the league) and Atlanta at plus 11 (tied for fourth).
Patriot advantage
But what separates them may be the defense. Statistically, New England is a lot better. The Patriots are seventh in third-down defensive percentage (36.9). By contrast, the Falcons are 26th at 41.8. That’s not good. In yards allowed, New England is eighth (third rushing, 12th passing) and first in points allowed, while Atlanta is 25th in yards allowed (17th rushing, 28th passing) and 27th in points allowed.
The two teams had five common opponents. Both lost to Seattle and both beat San Francisco, Los Angeles, Denver and Arizona during the regular season. Atlanta got a measure of revenge by defeating the Seahawks in the NFC Divisional round.
Quality quarterback
But what it usually comes down to in the Super Bowl is the quarterback. And while Ryan has had a phenomenal run with an array of offensive weapons, Brady has done an equally admirable job with an offense that isn’t as explosive, perhaps, but efficient.
And most importantly, he has been here before. Ryan has not, and prior to this season he has had a penchant for throwing interceptions at the worst possible times. If he avoids making mistakes and gets this game into a shootout then Atlanta can win.
Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for this offensive juggernaut and again history tells us this defensive whiz kid is very good at shutting down attacks of all kinds. The Patriots have won nine in a row, giving up only 13 points a game.
The Falcons have won six in a row averaging 39 points. As they say, something has got to give and the football fans of the Lone Star State may be treated to one of the best Super Bowls in its 50-plus-year history as a result.
Honolulu Star-Advertiser sports editor Paul Arnett is reporting on the Super Bowl from Houston.
