A panel of experts charged with predicting how much the state will collect in taxes revised its estimate downward Tuesday by about $34 million for this year, but that isn’t expected to cause any great hardship in state government.
In January the state Council on Revenues projected tax collections for the fiscal year that ends June 30 would grow by 6.7 percent over last year’s collections to a total of nearly $6.12 billion for the year.
Council members observed that during the first 10 months of this fiscal year, tax collections grew at a rate of only about 6.1 percent, or slightly behind the pace they had predicted. The council is made up of economists and other experts, and makes tax collection projections periodically to help lawmakers and the state administration develop and adjust the state budget.
Economist and University of Hawaii associate professor Christopher Grandy said the construction industry has shown strong growth, visitor expenditures are growing at about 3 percent and personal income for Hawaii residents has been growing at about 3.5 percent, which are all indications of a strong local economy.
Elizabeth P. Cambra, vice president for pricing and revenue for Outrigger Hotels and Resorts, said visitor bookings also look “healthy” for the summer ahead, with airline capacity to Hawaii increasing slightly.
Despite those positive economic indicators, the council voted to reduce its projection for this year slightly to match the trend in actual collections. That means the council is projecting the state will receive
$34 million less than it projected in January.
However, the state Department of Budget and Finance provided a separate report to the council that made it clear the state general fund will recoup that money and more from other sources.
According to the Budget and Finance report, state programs and agencies that are financed from federal or special funds are reimbursing the state general treasury for $61 million that was paid out to cover the cost of future retirement medical coverage for their employees.
The state will also receive additional reimbursements expected to total $52 million for health care that was provided by the state hospital system operated by the Hawaii Health Systems Corp.
Those funds were generated in part by negotiating better Medicaid reimbursement rates from the federal government for services that have already been provided, and also through additional federal payments to facilities designated as critical-access hospitals, according to the report.