Welcome to the dawn of the Aiona campaign for Honolulu mayor.

The big surprise from today’s edition of the Hawaii Poll, taken for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser by Ward Research, shows that in a three-way race between Mayor Kirk Caldwell, City Council Chairman Ernie Martin and former Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona, the former state judge is the strongest candidate.

The poll, taken Dec. 28 to Jan. 9, surveyed 433 registered Oahu voters. It has a margin of error of 4.7 percent, and was part of a larger statewide poll.

Of course, the poll is just a first measure of political strength and is nothing more than a chance for voters to test drive the candidates.

As the incumbent in the race, Caldwell has the advantages of being able to control free, positive publicity by holding news conferences surrounded by city workers and also remind city contractors, developers and hotel interests that his campaign needs money.

Martin has not started a campaign and the polls shows that he is mostly unknown. Even that factor, however, shows Caldwell’s weakness. In a Hawaii Poll horse-race question pitting just Caldwell against Martin, the mayor wins — 57 percent to 19 percent — but a huge 24 percent say they are undecided, meaning they may not know who Martin is but they are uncomfortable with Caldwell.

In a three-way trial, Aiona wins with 43 percent of the vote, compared with 38 percent for Caldwell and 8 percent for Martin. The undecided drops to 11 percent.

Pollster Becki Ward said this race for mayor could be Aiona’s “sweet spot.”

“This idea is to find a spot where a conservative doesn’t have to run as a Republican but can still get Republican votes,” said Ward in an interview.

“There are no guarantees that Aiona will be this strong in August,” Ward cautioned, but added that Aiona could possibly frame a race like former Mayor Mufi Hannemann did with fiscally conservative themes that don’t stress a political identification.

“I can see the parallels with a Hannemann race,” Ward said. “You want to find some way to level the playing field and for Aiona it is a nonpartisan race.”

Hannemann agrees. In an interview last week, the former two-term mayor said Aiona could be a strong candidate.

“I have always said that in nonpartisan races, people who can appeal to both sides can do well. The key is if you can resonate with some of the important issues,” Hannemann said.

Still, Hannemann — a Democrat who ran to the right of other candidates in two unsuccessful campaigns for governor — said that Aiona can compare favorably with Caldwell because the current mayor is perceived as not doing a good job with homelessness.

“No anti-rail candidate has ever won the mayorship, so Duke has to position himself as different from Caldwell — but not pledging to stop rail; that is not happening,” Hanne-mann advised.

Conventional wisdom holds that incumbents win re-election, making Caldwell a strong candidate, but he is not convincing voters he is doing a good job, although he holds a 59 percent approval rating for job performance.

Aiona’s surprising performance in the poll shows that Caldwell’s campaign has problems. Homelessness is viewed as the No. 1 issue, according to the Hawaii Poll, and more voters are giving Caldwell poor rather than good marks for his performance, 47 to 45 percent.

That is the sort of rating that, as Hannemann said, “could make this a horse race.”

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser. com.