Soon after these college football playoffs are history, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota will decide whether his days as a college quarterback are history. If Mariota, a redshirt junior, decides to enter the 2015 NFL Draft, then the scrutiny will begin.
And the process won’t always be kind.
Only in the NFL is being nice a negative trait.
But it is the job of NFL personnel to analyze and scrutinize, to try to find a weakness — any weakness — and make note of it, whether it’s important or not. Their jobs will depend of getting it right.
Look at the recent history of quarterbacks drafted No. 1 and 2 and you’ll see for every hit, there’s a whiff.
There wasn’t much separating No. 1 pick Andrew Luck from No. 2 Robert Griffin III in 2012 or Peyton Manning from Ryan Leaf in 1998. The top two picks in the NFL Draft are guaranteed more than $20 million apiece, so who to pick is a big decision. The Raiders blew No. 1s with JaMarcus Russell in 2007 and the Rams with Sam Bradford in 2010.
Hence, the need for overanalysis and provocative questions, even for a player of Mariota’s high character.
Can Mariota’s shy nature lead a team with players who have different agendas, and with some 10 to 15 years older than the 21-year-old?
Can his compassion be misconstrued as not having the killer instinct that the NFL covets?
Can he stand up to the NFL pounding as well as taunting of opponents who will try to mess with his mind?
These are some of the intangibles that NFL teams will try to decipher from their one-on-one interviews before they decide to invest millions in a prospect such as Mariota.
Oh, but his tangibles — the quick release, mobility, 4.5 speed, accuracy, touchdown-to-interception ratio of 38-2, all on a 6-foot-4, 219-pound frame — are so juicy, so enticing, so undeniable, so irresistible.
As early as October, a Tennessee Titans fan couldn’t resist and began a #SuckfortheDuck campaign. On Dec. 14, a day after the Heisman Trophy announcement, the New York Post splashed a headline over a picture of Mariota that read "Suck for the Duck" with the accompanying headline "With shot at Heisman winner Mariota on line, Jets can win by losing." Sorry, Jets fans, your team lost by winning the game against the Titans.
Even NFL personnel and draft experts are raving about what they have seen so far of Mariota.
An NFL general manager told Monday Morning Quarterback with Peter King that he rated Mariota behind Luck but ahead of RG3 as a draft prospect. Another NFL personnel director told King that Mariota is a "safer" pick than Griffin because he played more effectively from the pocket this season than Griffin did at Baylor.
"He was my best player I saw last year and he’s improved this year," a former longtime NFL scout told the Star-Advertiser. "I think he’s the best quarterback since Luck. I think he’s definitely the first pick. I don’t see anybody close to him."
ESPN draft analysts Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. have Mariota going No. 1 overall. McShay, who released his first mock draft Dec. 17, has Mariota and Jameis Winston, last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from Florida State and Oregon’s opponent Jan. 1, going 1-2.
But McShay, despite his mock selection of Mariota first and Winston second, says Winston is a better pro prospect, if you factor out Winston’s off-field baggage.
"The No. 1 thing you have to evaluate is from inside the pocket," said McShay during a radio interview with Colin Cowherd. "Can you make good decisions? Can you anticipate? Can you throw accurately? And when you’re evaluating that aspect of these two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston is clearly the better prospect."
McShay said Mariota is "not where you’d like ideally for a quarterback to be at this point coming out of college in terms of his accuracy and his anticipation inside the pocket."
UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr., a former NFL head coach with Atlanta and Seattle, said Mariota’s talents will translate well to the NFL.
"He’s going to be phenomenal," Mora said in an interview with NFL Network’s Rich Eisen. "He has everything you’re looking for to be a great NFL quarterback. He’s big. He’s fast, physical, incredibly smart and he makes great decisions. He’s an amazing competitor.
"He’s one of my favorite players of all time. He’s the kind of person you want representing your franchise. He’ll be a great, great, great pro player and I want him out of the Pac-12. Go to the NFL, Marcus."
By Jan. 15 — the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft — we will all know.