Roll call: Gov. Gill? Gov. Fasi? Gov. Anderson? Gov. Heftel? Gov. Saiki?
Not there, are they, although the early statewide polls all had Tom Gill, Frank Fasi, D.G. "Andy" Anderson, Cec Heftel and Pat Saiki beating the incumbent governor or heir-apparent lieutenant governor.
That is all the warning you need when reading the first polls of a political year.
Early in an election year, incumbent Democratic governors in Hawaii are just a lightning rod for heat and controversy.
Former Gov. John Burns had alarming friends, former Gov. George Ariyoshi headed a remorseless political machine, Lt. Gov. John Waihee had no money and Gov. Ben Cayetano owed everything to the public employee unions that drove us into a recession.
At the end of the election, however, those alarming friends, machine-voting Democrats, unpaid true-believers and voting public employees put the incumbents and Waihee into office after polls predicted defeat.
The new Hawaii Poll, taken by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, shows incumbent Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie ahead of Democratic primary opponent state Sen. David Ige 47 to 38 percent.
Since early in his first term as governor, Abercrombie has gotten poor marks for his job performance, not once getting at least 50 percent in job approval.
The Abercrombie administration has claimed that a budget deficit early on forced him to spend all his time shoring up state finances, but even that has led to confusion.
Abercrombie repeatedly tried to increase state taxes, only to have Ige and others in the Legislature reject his proposals. Now Abercrombie is campaigning on a platform of financial stability "without raising taxes."
Much of a politician’s success with voters is due the relationships built with the electorate, and the new poll shows Abercrombie in trouble with some groups, particularly those over 55 and AJA voters.
Neal Milner, University of Hawaii emeritus professor of political science, says Abercrombie’s unpopularity is one of the reasons that Ige was drawn into the race. The same can be said for former GOP Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, who is back in the race after losing to Abercrombie in the 2010 general election.
This time, one of the big differences is that Abercrombie’s opposition is coming first from inside his party.
Former Gov. Ben Cayetano recalled how his win over then-Maui Mayor Linda Lingle in 1998 was because of party unity:
"The Democratic leaders — Dan Inouye, Dan Akaka, George Ariyoshi, John Waihee, Neil Abercrombie, Jeremy Harris, and Walter Heen — all set our differences aside to unite and take on Linda Lingle," Cayetano said in an email interview Monday.
In October 1998, former Star-Bulletin reporter Mary Adamski followed Cayetano to a campaign rally at the Hawaii Okinawan Center, where the Democratic incumbent reached out to the AJA base of the Democratic Party.
"We’re going to need you guys from the 442nd one more time; you’ve got to rescue the Texas battalion again," Cayetano said.
His reference to the World War II Japanese-American heroes followed the historical theme taken by other party leaders at the "rally for Democrats at heart," Adamski wrote.
Cayetano, along with Ariyoshi, now supports Ige.
Cayetano thinks Abercrombie could be in more trouble than the poll predicts.
"The big difference in the 2014 election is the Democrats have a choice in the primary: Abercrombie or Ige. Frank Fasi once told me that ‘it’s the people who are angry who remember when they vote. …’" Cayetano said. "As the recent poll revealed, there is a significant anti-Abercrombie vote. A lot angry voters out there."
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
