It is still too early to set the field for the Democratic primary race for next year’s Hawaii’s Congressional District 1, but some things are becoming clear.
First, the seat to be vacated by U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is running for the U.S. Senate, is attracting a large field of Democrats with little name recognition.
So far, there are four politicians now holding office who want the congressional job.
Stanley Chang is a City Council freshman, Ikaika Anderson is in his second Honolulu Hale term, and state Rep. Mark Takai and Sen. Will Espero are legislative veterans.
All four are nice guys with little baggage, but never held political jobs allowing them to earn any real heft.
Also none have shown a major-league bank account.
"The race cries out for someone with real money," said one Democratic political adviser who asked not to be identified.
The first thing money does is secure the advertising needed to rise above the others in name recognition.
Hawaii’s 1st Congressional is a good district with some real political opportunities. It runs from Hawaii Kai to Mililani and Waipahu to Ko Olina.
In the district are the solid Democratic areas of Kalihi, Pearl City, Manoa and Palolo. There are also neighborhoods of growth, with new families and upward mobility, and there are more well-to-do, conservative areas in east Honolulu.
There are a lot of Democratic votes to be gathered there. In the past, the district has attracted around 120,000.
In 2012, 120,541 voters picked a Democratic ballot in the congressional race. In 2010, the race had 122,494 Democrats voting. And in 2008, former U.S. representative and now Gov. Neil Abercrombie had 94,838 voters in the primary. Of course, the 2008 primary also had the all-time lowest Oahu voter turnout: just 37 percent.
If all things and all candidates were equal, and the four would each get a nearly equal number, a turnout of 120,000 means a candidate could win with as few as 31,000 votes.That is not much, but it is more than any of the four have gotten in their last race. Chang and Anderson had the most because their Council districts were larger, but both won their primaries with fewer than 20,000 votes.
The race could see several more candidates before next year’s filing deadline.
Senate President Donna Mercado Kim would be a natural, first because she has a campaign bank account of $240,000. She has strong support with Filipino-American voters, is a well-known political figure who has held major leadership positions, and she is conservative enough to attract voters in East Honolulu.
But, Kim says at this time she is not interested.
Someone who is not saying whether there is interest or not is Mufi Hannemann, Honolulu’s former mayor.
Hannemann brings major name recognition into the race, but in his last two races, could not crack 40 percent.
Against Abercrombie, Hannemann had just under 38 percent, and facing Tulsi Gabbard in the race for Congressional District 2, Hannemann had 34 percent. Clear- ly Hannemann would need more than just name recognition to win next year.
So with the election a year away and four candidates already in contention, Hawaii’s CD 1 is still an open race.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
