The Central Pacific, which includes the Hawaiian Islands, probably will experience another season of below-average tropical cyclone activity, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced Wednesday.
The center, along with the National Weather Service, has predicted a 70 percent chance of a below-average season in the Central Pacific, a 25 percent chance of a normal season, and just a 5 percent chance of an above-average season.
The season begins June 1 and goes through Nov. 30.
"This means we expect between one and three tropical cyclones this year, and an average season typically sees four to five tropical cyclones," Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said during a news conference at the Hawaii State Civil Defense headquarters in Diamond Head Crater.
According to the center, the region has had below-average hurricane seasons in four of the past five years. The last above-average year was 2009, when seven tropical cyclones entered the Central Pacific basin.
In total, though, eight of the past 10 years have been below average.
"The outlook for a below-normal season is based on continued neutral ENSO, or El Niño southern oscillation, conditions throughout most of the season," Tanabe said. "This means we do not expect either La Niña or El Niño conditions to develop through the course of the season."
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures, which help fuel tropical storms, and La Niña by unusually cool temperatures, according to the weather service.
Forecasters in November said neutral conditions also contributed to last year’s lull. "Towards the end of the year we may see La Niña conditions develop, but even then it’ll be pretty weak," Tanabe said.
Hurricane Iniki in 1992 and Iwa in 1982 both hit during El Niño conditions, when the water is warmer.
Tanabe encouraged Hawaii residents to prepare in the event that a hurricane does strike.
"As with any season, it’s only going to take one storm," he said. "I hate to sound like a broken record, but we could predict 15 storms and they all occur but they all miss Hawaii, or we can predict one to three storms like this year. But it’s only going to take one storm."
Powerful storms that ripped through the Midwest this week — including an EF5 tornado that killed more than 20 people in Moore, Okla. — have Hawaii forecasters concentrating on hurricane preparedness.
Tanabe said his office followed the satellite and radar feed closely and some forecasters "wished they were there in the local offices pushing the button issuing the warning and helping to save lives."
"Our heart goes out certainly to all of the communities and individuals who are affected by those tragedies," he said. "But what enlightened me was amid all the destruction, amid all the chaos, there emerged a lot of stories about preparedness and how preparedness saved lives."
Tanabe joked that the local preparedness kit often includes last-minute purchases of water and Spam.
"And for some reason, and this doesn’t appear on any emergency kit or list I could ever think of or find: toilet paper," he added.
What does appear on preparedness lists, Tanabe said, is a seven-day supply of food and water for each family member, medicine, supplies for pets, electronic copies of important documents, and many other items. Lists can be found online on the various county websites and at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php and www.scd.hawaii.gov/preparedness.html.
"The key with any preparedness effort is that you just have to do what you can," Tanabe said. "For those of us that have the means, please put a little extra into your preparedness kits to help those less fortunate. … Some folks have trouble with just putting food on their table on a daily basis and it’s hard for them to stock up for seven days, but really do what you can. Even one day is going to help."
