The campaign by U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz will define next year’s political season and perhaps the Hawaii Democratic Party.
When sources in the Hanabusa camp this week let it slip that she would run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Schatz, suddenly the 2014 political picture cleared.
The Schatz-Hanabusa decision means there will be no face-to-face confrontation between Hanabusa and Gov. Neil Abercrombie.
Don’t forget, however, that a Hanabusa win would circumscribe much of Abercrombie’s political power as titular head of the Democratic Party.
Abercrombie will be bound to throw his political support behind Schatz because Abercrombie picked him to succeed the late U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye.
Also, as his lieutenant governor, Schatz was responsible for pushing Abercrombie’s position at the Legislature and in the community.
If Schatz loses, it says not only was he rejected, but so was Abercrombie’s leadership of the Democrats.
Although Hanabusa’s Senate decision means she will forego challenging Abercrombie for governor next year, the Schatz-Abercrombie relationship gives Hanabusa an entry into making part of her campaign about Abercrombie unpopularity.
The Hanabusa-Schatz battle will also see visits from another noncombatant, the iconic figurehead of Democrats in Hawaii and one of the most revered men in the history of the Senate: Dan Inouye.
A letter from Inouye was hand-delivered to Abercrombie the day Inouye died. It asked that Abercrombie grant him his dying wish, to appoint Hanabusa as his successor. It was a plea that Abercrombie rejected.
That rejection was a big gamble because now Abercrombie and Schatz will face not only Hanabusa and her campaign, but also the memories of Inouye — who is not only honored and remembered as a war hero and Democratic political mainstay, but as someone who had personally helped hundreds of now-influential members of the Hawaii Democratic Party. Members of the state Legislature, the business community and lobbying corps got their political ticket punched working in Washington, D.C., in Inouye’s office.
Hanabusa’s campaign has reportedly already been offered political support by the Inouye wing of the party.
A successful Schatz campaign will have to pick off some prominent members of the Inouye group for a public endorsement of the young appointee.
Schatz celebrates his 41st birthday in October; Hana-busa marks her 62nd next week. Age itself will not be an issue, but senatorial longevity will. It has been estimated that when Inouye died and former U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Akaka retired, Hawaii lost 72 years of senatorial seniority.
There have been arguments that Congress as a whole is less based on seniority than it has been in the past, but it is not a convincing line of reasoning. Hawaii voters can be expected to do the math about who can give the state the most seniority.
If much of Schatz’s campaign is based on examining his birth certificate, much of Hanabusa’s campaign will have to be based on value-added appeal, not just seniority.
The campaign may then turn on the candidates’ abilities to define and separate themselves, meaning the last few primary debates, which are just a little more than a year away, will be all important.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
