The spring for big decisions has arrived. Next year is an election year. With a bit of restlessness in Hawaii’s congressional delegation, 2014 could be a year that reshapes Hawaii’s political landscape.
It is expected that sometime soon, U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa will decide if she wants to run for re-election or oppose Gov. Neil Abercrombie or U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in next year’s Aug. 9 Democratic primary.
After that, it is likely that U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard will decide whether or not to run against Schatz.
The timing is critical because another viable chance at representing Hawaii in the U.S. Senate is not likely to come around for another two decades or so.
Given Hawaii’s propensity to award incumbent members of Congress with long-term contracts, it is likely that whoever wins in 2014 will be in the Senate for a very long time.
U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono appears to like her new job and has already chaired a committee hearing on her special interest — immigration, so there is little chance that she will be walking away anytime soon.
If Gabbard is interested in a Senate seat, now is when she should act.
If Hanabusa opposes Abercrombie and Gabbard takes on Schatz, or if they both run against Schatz, both congressional seats will be without an incumbent.
Last year, Hawaii’s politicians were mostly shocked by Gabbard’s come-from-behind smashing of the former two-term Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. The common thought was, "if she can, so can I," followed quickly by "Next time, I’m not waiting."
Well, 2014 is the next time, and if Gabbard can go from one term on the City Council to Congress, and Barack Obama can go from one term in the U.S. Senate to president, the lesson is there for the learning.
While nobody is saying anything on the record, there is already some active speculation.
City Councilman Stanley Chang is one likely candidate for Hanabusa’s 1st Congressional District, if she goes for another office. The Harvard-educated young Democratic attorney has been a quiet presence during his first Council term and will have to elevate his name recognition if he is to run for Congress.
Big Island Mayor Billy Kenoi is known by many and has a natural base of support among neighbor islanders, but he would also have to work to get known on the 2nd Congressional District’s Leeward and Windward sides of Oahu.
And Lt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui has said he is running for his current post, but there is still time to reconsider a Washington, D.C., relocation.
The state Senate is another hotbed of possible candidates.
Senate President Donna Mercado Kim has considered campaigns for both the U.S. Senate and House. As a successful Democrat veteran, she could make a strong showing in a 1st Congressional District race.
Sen. Will Espero is another potentially upwardly mobile Democrat. He has a lot of name recognition in his Ewa base but needs to work to gain recognition in other portions of the urban district.
For Kenoi, Chang, Kim and Espero, there is little risk in running because Hawaii’s "resign-to-run" law does not include federal office, so they would not have to quit to run for a new seat. And if they lose, their present office remains.
Tsutsui would have to decide between running for a state or federal seat.
Until the speculation turns to reality, Hawaii’s political future appears to be primed for big changes.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
