Median home sale prices on Oahu maintained a sturdy upward pace in September, holding to a trend this year that also has included inventory drifting downward in a countermotion that helps push up prices.
Data released Monday by the Honolulu Board of Realtors shows that the median price paid for previously owned single-family homes rose 11.8 percent to $637,000 last month from $570,000 in the same month last year.
The gain was the second biggest for any month this year, following 13.9 percent in March. And the median price was the second highest for any month this year, after $664,000 in May.
For the first nine months of the year, Oahu’s median home sale price is up a more modest 8.8 percent at $620,000 compared with $570,000 a year earlier.
More sales and less inventory are putting upward pressure on what buyers are paying, according to Joe Paikai, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors and broker-in-charge at Keller Williams Realty.
There were 304 single-family home sales last month, up 7 percent from 284 a year ago.
The number of homes on the market dipped to 1,193 last month, after floating between 1,200 and 1,300 from June to August. In September 2011 there were 1,486 homes for sale, according to the trade association data.
"There is less inventory now than a year ago, so homes are selling faster and prices are continuing to rise," Paikai said.
In Oahu’s condominium market, inventory tumbled, but there were fewer sales than there were a year ago and the median price rose only a bit.
Condos sold for a median $319,500 last month, up 0.9 percent from $316,500 a year earlier. There were 350 sales, down 3.8 percent from 364, in the same comparable period.
The condo price gain was the smallest for any month this year, though the median decreased by about 1 percent in February, March and June. Year-to-date through September, the median condo price is up 4.1 percent to $315,000 from $302,500 in the same period last year.
In September, fewer condo owners put or kept their units on the market, as inventory sank to 1,600 from 1,778 in August. In September 2011 there were 1,866 units on the market. The last time condo inventory went as low was in 2005 when it fell to roughly 1,300 from 1,700 during the last market boom.
Paikai said he suspects some sellers might be holding back in hopes of prices rising higher. But he also said some buyers could decide to hold off in hopes of more inventory coming on the market.
Paikai said he sees a potential flash point if inventory levels fall below a three-month supply. "It’s a real concern," he said. "The market is not balanced."
The industry’s supply measure is calculated by dividing inventory by an average pace of sales to show how long the supply would last if no more homes were listed for sale.
The supply for September was 3.3 months for single-family homes and 3.6 months for condos. Two years ago the two figures were a bit under 7 months. At the start of this year, months of remaining supply had fallen to 4.2 for single-family homes and 4.7 for condos. The last time the figure was under 3 months was the frenzied year of 2005.
"We’ll see what happens in the next few months," Paikai said.
