Hawaii’s economy is growing at a slower pace than previously estimated despite a stronger-than-expected performance by the visitor industry, according to a report released by the state Thursday.
Various economic indicators for 2012, including job growth, personal income and gross domestic product, were revised downward from the last forecast released in May by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, the broadest measure of Hawaii’s economic activity, is forecast to expand by 1.5 percent this year, down from the 2.2 percent growth rate previously estimated by DBEDT. Even with the downward revision, the economy is expected to do better than last year when state GDP contracted by 0.2 percent.
At the same time, the department revised upward its estimates for visitor arrivals and spending, both of which are on track to hit record highs this year. Spending is forecast to rise to $14.12 billion this year, up from DBEDT’s previous estimate of $13.92 billion. DBEDT expects 7.93 million visitors will travel to Hawaii this year, up from its previous forecast of 7.75 million visitors.
"While nontourism sectors have still not fully rebounded, they are showing positive signs of recovery. That’s why we are focused on policy tools and state support in areas such as construction, renewable energy and light manufacturing," said Richard Lim, DBEDT director.
The report highlights the uneven nature of Hawaii’s growth, with job growth in the visitor industry significantly outperforming other sectors.
While the number of jobs classified as "leisure and hospitality" increased by 5 percent during the first half of this year compared with the same period a year earlier, job counts fell by 9 percent in the information sector, by 2 percent in construction and by 0.3 percent in government, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Part of the reason for the rather large downward revision in the GDP forecast for 2012 was the fact that a federal agency that supplies DBEDT with some of the data for its forecast made significant changes in June to its estimate for Hawaii’s 2011 economic output, according to Eugene Tian, acting state economist. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which previously had estimated Hawaii’s inflation-adjusted GDP at plus 1.2 percent in 2011, revised that down to negative 0.2 percent in its annual revisions released in June.
The BEA concluded that the "spillover" effect from the visitor industry on other sectors of the Hawaii economy had been overestimated in its original analysis, according to Tian. The assumption is that the weakness in the broader economy identified by the BEA carried through into 2012, causing the state to revise its growth projection downward.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK |
Percentage change forecast through 2014 |
|
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
Visitor arrivals |
8.6% |
3.5% |
2.6% |
Visitor spending |
15.2% |
5.6% |
5.2% |
Honolulu inflation |
2.8% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
Personal income* |
1.5% |
2.1% |
2.6% |
Wage and salary jobs |
1.2% |
1.8% |
1.5% |
Gross domestic product* |
1.5% |
2.3% |
2.4% |
* Adjusted for inflation |
Source: State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism |