Tomorrow we vote. Sunday we pick up the pieces and see what has changed.
This election, more than most, could make a real difference.
Former Gov. Ben Cayetano is riding a big populist wave threatening to wash away years of city, state and federal spending sunk into an unpopular heavy rail system.
If Cayetano wins, it will be because he formed Hawaii’s most unlikely coalition of Republicans, ranging from the tea party to the Ripon Society, to Filipino-Americans showing ethnic pride, and traditional Democrats who admire and always have supported the Hawaii leader.
In the closing days of the campaign, Cayetano, temporarily slowed by a recurrence of a bleeding ulcer, has challenged the state’s powerful financial and labor interests.
In this campaign, the 72-year-old former two-term governor found his voice at the end of a televised debate when he rewrote his closing summation to explain he was running not against a misguided rail system, but to restore the political power of the people.
"Big business, big labor and a select few have been running things in this town for a very long time.
"They have their finger in nearly everything that affects our lives — and our children’s future," Cayetano said.
Cayetano’s promise to fight taps into Hawaii’s spirit of the 1954 Democrats who overthrew the plantation Republican oligarchy and Cayetano’s own "trust your gut" thinking of standing up for the little guy.
In a Cayetano radio commercial earlier this week, he singled out the state’s labor establishment.
After saying that the Carpenters Union spent more than $1 million "spreading lies and false accusations," the radio spot says that while "unions play an important role in our community and economy, when they go unchecked, become dangerous to the democratic process."
If Cayetano wins Saturday, it is a big defeat, not just for his opponents, but for the array of political and economic powers behind rail. The power of Hawaii’s iconic senior U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye and his own control of the state’s Democratic Party along with the economic powers of the state’s big banks, utility companies and developers would all be taken down a notch by an outright Cayetano victory in the primary.
As much as Cayetano will then be challenged to propose and implement a new and more acceptable transit plan, those same backroom powers will have to either cooperate or risk prolonged battle with the new City Hall.
Hawaii’s unions are not just lined up against Cayetano; they are also again challenging the long-time state Speaker of the House Calvin Say. The unions are trying to elect enough Democrats in the primary to block Say’s attempts at organizing the state House with supporters who will re-elect him speaker.
It may be too nuanced a deal for the average voter, but the big public unions would like to expand their bargaining power by controlling the state Legislature.
That may be a tactical mistake, because as one former labor leader said, "Now is a time to consolidate your power and consolidate your base."
By attempting to defeat Say by running candidates against his supporters, the public worker unions do not appear to have picked up enough support to topple the man who has led the state House for 13 years.
Finally, the Carpenters Union and contractors who have signed on with the union appear to have already lost $1 million in a misleading campaign of distorted attacks against Cayetano. Public opinion polls show no change in support after the media barrage.
It is not known whether the ads will give new credibility to negative campaigning in Hawaii — but whether Cayetano wins on Saturday or goes on to the general election, the Pacific Resource Partnership has already cheapened political debate in Hawaii.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
