In the last days of a political campaign, reporters are looking for the "Big Mo," the momentum shifts that show who is picking up speed and who is losing pace.
In the Democratic primary contest for the 2nd Congressional District, former Mayor Mufi Hannemann, once considered the overwhelming favorite and frontrunner, is now locked in a tight race with Tulsi Gabbard, a 31-year-old Honolulu Councilwoman.
These last days are crucial enough for Hannemann to lend his campaign $150,000 so he can continue to buy TV commercials.
Tyler Dos Santos-Tam, Hannemann’s deputy campaign manager, told the Star-Advertiser’s Derrick DePledge in a recent news item that Hannemann made the loan to keep up with the influx of "mainland-based special interest money."
That mainland money proving worrisome to the 58-year-old Democrat is going to Gabbard from Emily’s List, which supports pro-choice Democratic women. The organization has already put more than $137,000 worth of TV commercials into the race and the Sierra Club is also doing a direct mail campaign, mostly attacking Hannemann.
In terms of political money, Hannemann, a political veteran of both the City Council and the mayor’s office, is still leading, after raising a total of $1.2 million, compared to Gabbard’s $1 million. But the footsteps Hannemann hears are Gabbard’s rapid increase in contributions. In the last two federal reporting periods, she has raised more than him. Dollars don’t always equal votes, so just getting more money doesn’t guarantee a win.
Because voters won’t vote for people they don’t know, Gabbard, a relative political newcomer, needs money just to get people to understand who she is and what office she wants.
Besides the money angle, the race is fascinating because of the many subtexts and nuances.
Hannemann and Gabbard are both part-Samoan, and if either is elected to Congress, the winner would be another "Hawaii is the melting pot America wants to become" story.
While Hannemann’s Mormon religion is not all that unusual on the national level, Gabbard’s life-long Hindu religion would be a definite first for Hawaii.
If by some chance the final results in the November election left Hawaii with former Gov. Linda Lingle in the U.S. Senate, and Gabbard and U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in Congress, Hawaii’s congressional delegation tally would be: one Hindu, one Buddhist, one Jew and one Christian.
Another subtext is the speculation that the underdog campaign of Esther Kiaaina will hurt Gabbard and help Hannemann.
Kiaaina is an attorney and former chief of staff to both former U.S. Rep. Ed Case and former Guam delegate Robert Underwood. Like Gabbard, Kiaaina also worked for U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Akaka. Recently she has been chief advocate for the state Office of Hawaiian Affairs. She is an articulate liberal with little money, but during a Kauai debate earlier this week, she tried to tamp down rumors that a vote for her would only help Hannemann.
While Gabbard is projecting herself as more liberal than Hannemann on social issues, it would be a stretch to apply some campaign judo to voters’ decisions and expect that Hannemann would be steering voters toward Kiaaina and away from Gabbard.
Perhaps not as complicated is the help that Gabbard is getting from Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s supporters. Leading the list is the public support Gabbard gets from first lady Nancie Caraway.
Just as important is the financial patronage Gabbard has received from Abercrombie’s top backers, including at least $13,900 from individuals associated with Mitsunaga & Associates, the architecture and engineering firm.
Despite the handshake two years ago after Abercrombie trounced Hannemann in the Democratic primary, there is still an almost obvious dislike between the two. It is not lost on the Abercrombie camp that a Hannemann defeat would pretty much end his political career and propel Gabbard into a different league.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
