Punahou in control

Everybody loves the Warriors, at least this weekend.

Everyone, that is, but the Punahou Buffanblu. The first-place team in the Interscholastic League of Honolulu can shut the door on all contenders tomorrow with a victory over Kamehameha. It won’t be easy, though.

Fourth-ranked Punahou (6-0 ILH, 8-1 overall) eked out a 17-14 win over Kamehameha two weeks ago. The Warriors (4-1, 5-3) are the only team in the past four games to score on the Buffanblu’s elite defensive unit. Then again, Kamehameha’s offensive explosion — somewhat similar to the evolution of the 2009 state championship team — has amounted to 33.8 points per game in the Warriors’ past six games. Only Punahou marred that run.

Saint Louis (3-2, 6-2) is hoping for a minor miracle that would set Punahou back. The Crusaders face both Punahou and Kamehameha in the final two weeks of the ILH season. If things play out in their favor, the three teams will have two losses each at the end of the regular season, setting up a tiebreaker process.

"For us to have any chance, we need Kamehameha to win, but as a program we know we can only control what we can control," Saint Louis coach Darnell Arceneaux said. "Punahou understands what’s at stake. It’s kind of what we faced last year, having two games left and a chance to clinch it. As a coach, you want to get it over with."

Arceneaux’s team, plagued with injuries this season, has a bye this weekend. He expects a battle of gladiators tomorrow.

"It’ll be very high energy, more points scored than people think, maybe a shootout. It’s one of those games where you throw out the whole arsenal and don’t hold back for next week," he said. "This is why I think the ILH is so competitive and so tough. You’ve got three great Division I football teams battling for one (state) berth. I have great respect for both coaches and I consider them my friends. I wish them both the best of luck."

Punahou coach Kale Ane has seen it all from preps to the pros, but he still gets excited thinking about game day.

"I think Darnell’s probably right. There’s going to be more risk taking, agonizing moments to decide whether to go for it or be cautious," said Ane, who guided the Buffanblu to a state title in ’08. "It’s exciting. Both teams have a chance to achieve something important."

Ane is a bit of a fan of Kamehameha’s program and coach David Stant.

"It’s really a lot to prepare for. David does a good job. They have a lot to offer on offense and defense, and they’ve got very good athletes. It’s going to come down to execution and second effort, and a little luck here, too," Ane said.

On paper: Both teams began the season with new starters at quarterback. Kamehameha lost a host of talent on defense, while Punahou returned many key stoppers, including defensive end DeForest Buckner. That defense has held down the fort with five shutouts, and no opponent has scored more than 18 points (‘Iolani).

From the defensive line, anchored inside by senior Feteleni Sekona (6 feet 2, 280), to a linebacker corps headed by junior Isaac Savaiinaea (6-3, 230) to a secondary led by senior Quincy Marting (5-11, 170), there isn’t a weakness in the unit.

Or is there?

Kamehameha rushed for a modest 83 yards in the loss to Punahou, led by Tyler Meditz’s 60-yard effort (4 yards per carry). But it was the passing of Nephi Stevens (10-for-18, 152 yards, no picks) and Cid Camanse-Stevens (5-for-12, 62 yards, no picks) that tested the Buffanblu. The Buffanblu gave up 214 passing yards in the previous matchup, well above their average (150).

Wide receiver Raymond Pedrina had five catches for 99 yards that night and is coming off a huge performance in last week’s win over ‘Iolani. The Buffanblu could play him straight and let the chips fall, but if they choose to shadow Pedrina, Alika McGuire, Tristan Peterson and Avery Amasiu (three touchdowns) could get solo coverage.

Punahou’s pass rush is stout, even without injured defensive end Luke Kaumatule (6-8, 265).

Steven Lakalaka remains one of the most versatile running backs in the state. His ability to pound between the tackles and break outside, plus normally sticky hands on swing routes, has amounted to nearly 900 yards and nine touchdowns from scrimmage. Offensive coordinator Darryl Kan has challenged his young quarterbacks, and sophomore Larry Tuileta has been efficient with 55 percent accuracy, 11 touchdowns and just six interceptions. His 119.41 passer rating rates favorable with notable first-year starters of the past; Campbell’s Justin Tago, who helped his team upset Punahou in August, had a rating of 113.24 last year.

Tuileta’s main target on third down has been 6-5 Malik Johnson (29 receptions, 389 yards, six touchdowns).

Whether it’s a pistol-unbalanced line look with fullback Jacob Ioane or a shotgun set or under center, the Buffanblu have been happy to grind downfield. The once pass-happy offense has run the ball 62 percent of the time this fall.

The skinny: The Warriors have been admirably tough on defense despite heavy losses to graduation. Defensive backs Taylor Taliulu and Pono Choy have reaped the rewards of a solid front seven that has permitted just 78 rushing yards per game.

Facing a massive Punahou offensive line led by Matt Sparks (6-5, 285) is the ultimate test. Lakalaka bolted for 147 yards on just 21 attempts in the first meeting.

With the league championship and a state-tournament berth on the line, the Warriors could stick to the basics and hope to win enough 1-on-1 battles in the box to eke out a win. Or, with Stant and his staff using their usual creativity, the Warriors could show some new twists that may puzzle Tuileta and backup Luke Morris (35-for-46, four touchdowns, one pick).

X factor: There’s always Kaimi Fairbairn to save the day for Punahou. Now in his third season as a standout place-kicker, his 50-yard field goal — his eighth three-pointer of the season — proved to be the difference in the first Punahou-Kamehameha showdown. His kickoff range (back of the end zone) is another advantage Punahou enjoys over most competition.