Much of what you need to know about the prospects for University of Hawaii’s season-long football fortunes boils down to one telltale game this year:
The first one.
Beat Colorado in the season opener Thursday at Aloha Stadium — and stay reasonably healthy — and the Rainbow Warriors, thanks to a weak division in the Mountain West Conference, have a legitimate shot at winning the seven games (out of 13) necessary to end their four-year bowl drought.
But lose to the Buffaloes and the odds immediately stack up heavily on the likelihood of yet another tough season.
“It is a challenge, no doubt about it, but we’re going to meet it,” head coach Norm Chow said of the 13 games in 13 weeks schedule.
COLORADO
9/3/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 7 p.m.
The last time the ‘Bows managed to beat a team from a Power Five conference was … well, the Buffaloes in the 2011 season opener. To mark the fourth anniversary of the event they get to do it again.
Score: Hawaii 31, Colorado 28.
At OHIO STATE
9/12/15 @ Columbus, Ohio • 9:30 a.m.
The gathering at 104,944-seat Ohio Stadium, aka “the Horseshoe,” figures to be the largest crowd to see UH play a football game.
Alas, with the talent arrayed in Columbus, including Heisman Trophy candidate Ezekiel Elliott at running back, the sight of the vast sea of scarlet in Ohio State’s home opener — and the $1.2 million check that comes with it — might be the high points of this 4,516-mile excursion for the ‘Bows.
Score: Whatever Buckeyes’ coach Urban Meyer wants it to be.
UC DAVIS
9/19/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 6 p.m.
Chow should buy somebody — associate athletic director Carl Clapp mostly, we’re told — a nice lunch for this one.
Having the Aggies, a Football Championship Subdivision member, sandwiched between the Buckeyes and Badgers is the closest thing to an open date UH is gonna get in this wall-to-wall season.
Score: Hawaii 38, UC Davis 17.
At WISCONSIN
9/26/15 @ Madison, Wis. • 2 p.m.
Let’s see, in the last four meetings between the schools, the Badgers’ top running back has averaged 220 yards per game against UH.
After consecutive matchups against Miami of Ohio and Troy this season, is it too much to hope that the Badgers might be looking ahead to the Big Ten Conference opener next week?
If not, it could be a long day in raucous Camp Randall Stadium as the ‘Bows earn that $1.1 million paycheck.
Score: Wisconsin 52, Hawaii 13.
At BOISE STATE
10/3/15 @ Boise, Idaho • TBA
The Rainbow Warriors have yet to win in five visits to the Smurf Turf and this could be their last opportunity for a while under the Mountain West’s revolving schedule.
Don’t look for a memorable parting.
Score: Boise State 36, Hawaii 20.
SAN DIEGO STATE
10/10/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 6 p.m.
To beat the Aztecs UH has to stop the conference’s top running back, Donnel Pumphrey.
To do it they’ll have to manage holding him to fewer than the 182 yards he got last season.
Score: San Diego State 28, Hawaii 21
At NEW MEXICO
10/17/15 @ Albuquerque, N.M. • 1 p.m.
To tell you how long ago it has been since UH last played the Lobos in Albuquerque, does the name Johnny Macon ring a bell as the quarterback?
Twenty years later, the ‘Bows are back in the “Land of Enchantment” looking for a happy ending.
Score: Hawaii 27, New Mexico 24.
At NEVADA
10/24/15 @ Reno, Nev. • 10 a.m.
Only once in seven tries has UH won a game in Reno — and it took the Sugar Bowl-bound 2007 team to do it in a cliffhanger. The Nick Rolovich string of domination continues.
Score: Nevada 31, Hawaii 21.
AIR FORCE
10/31/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 4:30 p.m.
The Academy’s mascot, the falcon, flies off into the wild blue yonder in pregame festivities. But the Falcons’ football team sticks to the ground.
Score: Air Force 21, Hawaii 17.
At NEVADA-LAS VEGAS
11/7/15 @ Las Vegas, Nev. • 1 p.m.
The past two games between these schools have gone down to a final dramatic play — a deciding field goal in 2013 and Ikaika Woolsey’s 20-yard touchdown pass to Marcus Kemp in ‘14.
Why should this one be different?
Score: Hawaii 34, UNLV 31.
FRESNO STATE
11/14/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 6 p.m.
So big were Fresno State’s flops in its past two Hawaii Bowl appearances (2012 and ‘14) that the Bulldogs return warily to Aloha Stadium.
All the more reason for Gov. David Ige to declare this “Hawaii Bowl Week” and exacerbate their trepidation.
Score: Hawaii 32, Fresno State 27.
SAN JOSE STATE
11/21/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 6 p.m.
If the ‘Bows can pitch a shutout of the Spartans in San Jose (13-0 in 2014), surely they can pull out a win here at Aloha Stadium, right?
Score: Hawaii 37, San Jose State 31.
LOUISIANA-MONROE
11/28/15 @ Aloha Stadium • 6 p.m.
History reminds UH to beware of the hook and lateral.
In its last visit to Aloha Stadium — and in its previous incarnation as Northeast Louisiana — the Warhawks stunned Hawaii, 23-20, in UH’s first overtime game.
They did it with a brilliantly executed hook and lateral.
That was three head coaches and 18 years ago but the pain remains.
Score: Hawaii 33, Louisiana-Monroe 25.
