It took nine years, but Oahu’s housing market finally hit a new hundred-grand level — $700,000 — for annual median prices of single-family houses.
December’s median single-family home sales price rose a modest 1.4 percent from the $690,000 attained during the same month in 2014, according to data released for publication today by the Honolulu Board of Realtors. The median price for condominiums increased by 6.9 percent from December 2014 to $386,250, which represents an all-time high; the previous record of $381,500 was set in January 2015.
HOME SALES
The number of homes sold on Oahu in December with the median price and percentage change from the same month last year.
HOMES |
|
Sales |
Median Price |
December 2015 |
297 |
$700,000 |
December 2014 |
284 |
$690,000 |
Change |
4.6% |
1.4% |
CONDOS |
|
Sales |
Median Price |
December 2015 |
424 |
$386,250 |
December 2014 |
390 |
$361,250 |
Change |
8.7% |
6.9% |
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors |
December results pushed the 2015 single-family home median to $700,000, which represented a gain of 3.7 percent from 2014’s single-family home median of $675,000. It was the first time since 2006 the price has broken a new $100,000 level. In that year, the median reached $600,000.
The 2015 median for a condominium rose 2.9 percent to $360,000 from 2014’s $350,000 median.
The gains have left some people, even real estate experts, asking, “How much higher can the market go?”
Scott Higashi, executive vice president of Locations, said 2015 marked the fourth consecutive year of price appreciation. Higashi said the number of sales on Oahu in 2015 also exceeded 2014 in both single-family home and condominium resales, continuing a trend that started in 2011 for single-family homes and 2009 for condominiums.
December single-family home sales rose 4.6 percent to 297 transactions, while condominium deals climbed 8.7 percent to 424. Annual single-family home sales rose 5.2 percent to 3,455 and annual condominium sales increased 4.5 percent to 5,028.
Higashi said modest growth has been fueled by an environment where the housing stock is limited, interest rates are low, and some local people have benefited from rising employment and wages as well as home appreciation.
“Bid-ups, the mechanism that pushes median prices up, were at near-record levels and have continued to rise over the past several years,” said Higashi, who expects to see continued growth in 2016 — albeit at a slower pace.
John Riggins, owner of John Riggins Real Estate, said continued price gains could lead to more moderation.
“We were definitely up last year, but the previous year had much more dramatic gains, ” said Riggins, who has 39 years of real estate experience on Oahu. “The market began moderating as it moved toward the $700,000 median, which pushes against loan limits.”
While some neighborhoods saw monthly price adjustments and longer days on the market, Riggins said there were pockets of tremendous activity in places like Ewa Beach, Kapolei and the Waianae Coast. By his estimation, the sweet spot was reserved for $500,000 to $1.2 million homes. Some of the strongest local activity came from move-up buyers, who brought equity from their former home, and military buyers, who in addition to their base pay enjoy tax-free housing allowances ranging from $2,400 to $4,000 a month and tax-free cost-of-living adjustments of about $500 to $900 a month.
Shannon Severance, a Realtor Associate with Re/Max Honolulu, said sellers and military buyers made 2015 her best year since 2010.
“I’m a solo agent and I did 57 transactions with over $30 million in sales volume. I was the top producer at my company,” Severance said.
While Severance has a strong military clientele, Oahu’s price appreciation also has increased the sellers who seek her services.
“I had one family that bought three years ago and walked away with $140,000. The price appreciation has just been incredible,” she said. “Right now, I’m helping a family sell an Ewa Beach town home. They bought it last year, and they’ll make $25,000.”
While last year brought strong returns, they were slightly lower than the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization’s March estimate that Oahu’s median single-family house sale price would hit $709,600 based on a 5 percent increase.
In 2014, the single-family median started gaining on $700,000, hitting it in June and going to $719,500 in November. This year, it has ranged between $648,000 and $730,000, the latter of which was achieved in September and represented a record for any single month.
UHERO has forecast that the median price will rise to $816,800 by 2017.
Higashi and other real estate experts said the gains might be too bullish. They expect modest growth will bring new records by year’s end, though rising prices, coupled with rising interest rates, could bring headwinds.
“If we run out of people who can qualify, the market will slow down, but right now people are still looking,” said Mark James, sales manager at Guild Mortgage company. “We aren’t seeing that much of a slowdown. If anything, interest rate changes have motivated people to get off the fence.”
Daniel Costigan, mortgage broker at Honolulu Mortgage Alliance, said more buyers are bumping up against loan limits, but they are still buying.
“I see a lot more of them getting down-payment assistance from family members or bringing in more borrowers,” Costigan said.