Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is clearly the most popular candidate for president among Hawaii voters early in the 2016 election season, with 35 percent of those surveyed saying they would cast their ballot for her if the election were held today, according to a new Hawaii Poll.
Bernie Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont and a longtime democratic socialist, appears to have a bit more support locally than Republican billionaire Donald Trump, but Sanders and Trump each have only about one-third of the followers that Clinton has among Hawaii voters, the poll found.
The field of Republican candidates other than Trump, including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, barely registered with local voters, displaying low levels of support that were within or only slightly beyond the margin of error for the poll.
The Hawaii Poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc. Dec. 28-Jan. 9 on cellphones and landlines, included 619 registered voters statewide. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 points.
The poll suggests that while many voters nationally are embracing nontraditional candidates such as Trump and Sanders, Hawaii’s dominant Democrats are taking a more cautious approach to what has been a turbulent lead-up to the 2016 presidential campaign.
Clinton supporter Robert Stender said he is a lifelong Democrat who voted for Republicans only twice in his life, and said he respects Clinton’s experience. The former first lady also served as a U.S. senator from New York.
Stender, 78, said he knows politicians don’t always keep their promises, but he holds the view that “even if Hillary is lying, she’s basically like me, her thoughts are liberal,” he said. “If she is the nominee I’m going to vote for her because her thinking is more towards my thinking.”
Stender said he’s no longer certain that Clinton will prevail in the primary, but added that “whoever it is, if it’s a Democrat, then I’m going to vote for the Democrat.”
Wailuku, Maui, resident Romeo Yanos said he supports Donald Trump, in large part because he agrees with Trump’s proposal to deport undocumented or illegal immigrants.
Yanos, 52, said he and his family emigrated from the Philippines, with his father arriving first, and the rest of the family following a decade later in 1976. “There’s a big difference between legal and illegal,” he said. “We did it the proper way.”
“Give him a chance,” Yanos said of Trump. “If it doesn’t work, then at least he tried. Then the people can vote for another president.”
Clinton was the top pick for president for 52 percent of the respondents who said they usually vote Democratic, and is more popular among women than men.
She is also most popular among Japanese-American voters, who have long been the backbone of the Hawaii electorate. Democratic Clinton also polls better among voters who are 35 years old and older.
Trump, meanwhile, was the favorite candidate for 22 percent of the voters who usually vote Republican, making him the most popular candidate among Republican-leaning voters. He was significantly more popular among men than among women.
Sanders was the most popular candidate among Hawaii voters younger than 35 years old.
While the poll results reflect Hawaii voters’ preferences, most Hawaii voters will have little say over who the Hawaii Democrats or Republicans actually select as their preferred candidates.
The Hawaii Democratic Party will hold a presidential preference poll on March 26 to decide which candidate will get the Hawaii party’s support, but that voting is an internal party affair open only to card-carrying Democrats.
Those Democratic Party gatherings are usually attended by only a tiny fraction of the state’s voters, although the 2008 campaign of Hawaii-born Barack Obama generated a surge of participation in the Democratic caucuses that year.
The Hawaii Democratic Party will send 34 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, which will be held July 25-28. Some of those delegates will be uncommitted to any particular candidate, while others will be committed to specific candidates based on those candidates’ showings in the March 26 presidential preference poll.
On the Republican side, the Hawaii GOP will hold presidential caucuses on March 8, and registered voters who sign up for the Republican Party and attend will be able to pick their favorites. A presidential preference poll will determine which candidates are allocated 16 of the 19 Hawaii delegates to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland July 18-21.
Hawaii Poll — Presidential Race
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CORRECTION: The Hawaii GOP presidential preference poll on March 8 will determine which candidates are allocated 16 of the 19 Hawaii delegates to the national convention. A Page A1 story Sunday said one winner would receive 16 delegates.
