Aiona, still undecided on a run for mayor, is on top for now
FIRST OF THREE PARTS
Former Hawaii Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona insists he has not made up his mind about running for Honolulu mayor, but the latest Hawaii Poll may give him encouragement.
Aiona, who on Friday acknowledged that he is considering a run, came out on top in a three-way poll question asking registered voters whom they’d select as mayor if the election were to occur today, beating out incumbent Kirk Caldwell and the second-most powerful person at Honolulu Hale, City Council Chairman Ernie Martin.
Martin, like Aiona, has not said he will challenge Caldwell. Prohibited by term limits from running for a third consecutive Council term, Martin said he wants to be mayor some day but not necessarily this year.
And like Aiona, Martin has not been shy to criticize Caldwell’s policies on rail, homelessness and other issues.
The Hawaii Poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc. Dec. 28-Jan. 9 on cellphones and landlines, included 433 registered voters on Oahu. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.7 points.
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The first election for the mayor’s seat is Aug. 13, and the deadline for candidates to file nomination papers isn’t until June 7.
Aiona, Caldwell and Martin all said it’s too early to say who could win the nonpartisan election seven months away.
So too did Jerry Burris, freelance writer and former Honolulu Advertiser editorial page editor, who said the poll may provide a good snapshot of how the electorate feels today, before the campaign shifts into high gear, but may not be the best signal of who will occupy the mayor’s office in 2017.
Burris said “it’s to be expected” that Caldwell would finish second to Aiona in a poll at this juncture when the latter is a fairly well-known political figure and the incumbent is the face of the $6.57 billion rail project, the most expensive construction project in Hawaii history.
“It’s almost inevitable when you’re at that tip of the spear on a highly contentious, and highly visible and highly covered situation like the rail project … you’re going to take some hits for that and if there’s softness in his numbers, it has to do with his high-visibility association with a project that has a lot of controversy,” Burris said.
Burris also said that any incumbent who’s been in office for nearly four years is bound to have a growing unfavorable rating.
“Every decision a chief executive makes and accumulates makes someone happy and someone unhappy,” he said.
As for Aiona, the Republican who in the 2014 governor’s race finished second to Democrat David Ige but ahead of independent Mufi Hannemann, his high numbers in a three-way race are likely due, at least in part, to his perennial anti-rail position. Last month, Aiona said he still opposes rail in general but does not have enough information to say he would try to stop the project, or cut it short, if he were to be mayor.
Burris said Aiona’s poll numbers also reflect the “genial image” voters had of him following the last election.
“So people have no reason to have strong negative feelings about him,” he said.
“If Duke actually runs, then (he) has to get into it, and then I think the numbers will shift around a little bit,” he said.
Burris said he was surprised with Martin’s numbers. “The numbers don’t look good for him,” he said. “Around City Hall, and among the chattering classes, he’s very well known. But out there in the general public … he’s not that well known.”
Caldwell, asked about his declining job approval ratings, said he has taken firm positions on lightning-rod issues, pushing forth with rail and instituting his “compassionate disruption” plan to take homeless people off the streets. “I am someone who has engaged in every issue no matter how controversial it is,” he said. “I have not ducked, bobbed, weaved or delayed addressing the issues of the day.”
No matter what the numbers show, “I’ve got to get out there and work hard for every vote,” Caldwell said. He declined to discuss potential opponents but said “it’s very early in the campaign; we have a really long way to go.”
Aiona declined to say if the poll provides incentive for him to run, although it might inspire some of his supporters, he said. Nonetheless, Aiona continued to criticize Caldwell’s decisions on rail, homelessness, affordable housing and other issues.
The former lieutenant governor said he was surprised that Caldwell’s job performance approval ratings were as high as they were. “The telling point is the approval/disapproval category,” he said, noting that the mayor’s disapproval ratings rose significantly. “Apparently, the general public is not happy in regard to the job he’s doing,” he said.
That the numbers show him beating Caldwell in a three-way race was also a little surprising, especially since he has not made any decision on his political future, Aiona said. But he also pointed out that the Hawaii Poll, in early 2014, also showed him beating then-incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie and eventual winner David Ige.
Martin said that this early in the political season, he’s not surprised that his numbers aren’t higher or that his name recognition is so low. “I’m not as fortunate as the two others, who’ve run islandwide or statewide,” he said. “It’s always been a hurdle I know I would have to overcome once I make a decision to run for mayor — to build that name recognition.”
Others, such as Ige and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, have won despite being solid underdogs at the outset, he said.
Martin said Aiona’s strong showing in a three-way race is “not surprising, given both myself and Kirk have been more in favor of the rail project, although we have differences in how we move forward.”
Kahaluu resident Brian Benton, among those who participated in the Hawaii Poll, said he opposes rail and does not think either Caldwell or the Council has done a good job of providing oversight of the project. He’s frustrated with the growing number of homeless on Oahu streets, but said he supports Caldwell’s sidewalk enforcement actions.
Benton said he’s inclined to vote for Aiona or Martin before Caldwell, but that the challengers would have to prove to him that they have solid positions. As a result, he said, he wishes they’d hurry up and decide if they’re running.
Dean, a Kaheka area resident who asked that his full name not be used because he is friends with all three of the men polled, said he likes how Caldwell has dealt with both the rail project and homelessness lately.
“I thought the first couple of years, he wasn’t doing enough, but the last year, year and a half … I think the mayor’s stepped up his game,” he said.
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CORRECTION: The Hawaii Poll conducted in July 2015 found 70 percent of Oahu registered voters approved of Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s job performance, while 20 percent disapproved, and 10 percent said they did not know or refused to answer. A graphic on an earlier version of this story showed the responses of all residents polled, not just registered voters as was indicated in the footnote.
77 responses to “Aiona, still undecided on a run for mayor, is on top for now”
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Just like the DPH wanted. Give that loser Aiona some hope to run and he will be destroyed in the election by anybody else. The SA is such a dem mouthpiece.
May the best loser in Hawaii win.
I think the best losers will be the populace of C&C of HNL
kekelaward,
Go back to Queens Hospital Kekela Ward were you belong. Duke is a Successful person from Grade School till Now !!! So Ai Kae !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GSC, as long as Duke supports Native Hawaiian sovereignty and independence, he will lose 60% of the votes cast in Hawaii. Maybe, after Tuesday and the U.S. Supreme Court decides on the contempt against OHA and the State of Hawaii, more voters will move away from him.
Well Duke is ” Kanaka Maoli ” .
GSC, what has being a “Kanaka Maoli” to do with being American?
He does not support sovereignty or independence. Most Hawaiians do not and it never happens. But that said, we really need better candidates than these 3.
What does Aiona have in common with losers Gib “traitor” Arnold and Norm Chow? Why would one even consider putting such a loser in office?
Caldwell is a copy of Harris-(by the way where is Harris?). Still don’t know how Caldwell got elected(part of the democratic power?) as much as Martin has disagreed with Caldwell on issues Caldwell got most of what he requested(not all Martin’s fault but isn’t he the chair?). Though a republican duke is a better choice. Caldwell should go to shoveling asphalt and do road repairs.
Caldwell is already chewing lots of gum to patch up the potholes.
Caldwell is owned by the Unions & does whatever they demand, He is and has been the worst mayor ever in the State of Hawaii. he has lied and deceived the public in regards to the RAIL WHILE ACCEPTING OVER A MILLION DOLLARS from the Unions and construction Pro-Rail groups while throwing the public under the TRAIN. So yes givent he choice of Martin, Caldwell or Aiona, then Aiona is the clear choice of those wanting honest government. so the new mantra is STOP RAIL NOW AND SEND CALDWELL OFF TO FIND HARRIS.
I agree, I used to vote for Democrats, but, they seem only interested in themselves and running for the next election. Run Duke, run!
All politicians are only interested in themselves!
harris and mufi were the worst..at least caldwell is paving our roads..as for the rail..well we have only ourselves to blame for not stopping it
Harris is keeping a low profile. Understand he goes and gives lectures on environmental issues (his forte as a biology major). Wife Ramona left him quietly soon after his loss running for governor. But give Harris some credit. Hannemann took credit for a $1 million dollar cache discovered by an outside audit, that contrary to his badmouthing of Harris was the result of Harris’ administrative efforts to keep city costs down. cladwell, however, has shown no such inclination.
Although I supported Ige against Aiona, due to Aiona/Ahu’s promise to turn state government into their form of born-again Christian oligarchy, a la ISIL, I would consider Aiona against the evil lust for power and greed of cladwell. That is, if Aiona has learned his lesson and promises not to make Ahu his managing director. So, Aiona would have to step forward and say a lot more than he has to date.
I think you mean Theocracy. Aiona has no record of accomplishment that I can think of, no executive experience beyond a school and I’m not sure how well that went. If he runs for mayor, my hope is he will be anti rail and will be able to do only limited damage at the city level trying to impose his religious views on the government. I’d vote for in he would promise to maintain the streets and parks, find out whats wrong with and fix the sanitation and trash pickup department, and not ask for money to build any new stuff until the city demonstrates that it can take care of what it already has.
He is a nice person but without much ability or experience running a complex city
Give Harris a little more credit. Hannemann and his ilk deliberately painted the outgoing mayor as all black, to help their colleagues seeking the governorship and kill Harris’s try for governor. Proof of this lies in the fact that when a million dollar surplus was found in a city department, Hannemann claimed responsibility, citing his excellent management, giving the Harris administration no mention and contrary to the audit’s actual findings. cladwell is more a carbon-copy of Hannemann. Both he and Hannemann learned at the knee of lord potentate Inouye. And their tactics are similar to their teacher. cladwell’s mild-manner, a la Clark Kent, may fool some, but beneath his clothes-less imperial visage lies the heart of an Inouye wannabe, just as ruthless, just as power-hungry. Often wonder if he went to the same barber as Inouye.
Must poor Inoue continue to bear that ridiculous “y” in death?
Caldwell has done an outstanding job at whatever he tackles. The mayorship is no exception.
wiliki, since you work in the mayor’s office, aren;t you obligated to say that. Too bad actual facts might suggest otherwise.
We kupunas are unbiased. And I’ve never worked for the city. You, OTOH, hmmm…
Yea, he’s real good at taking orders from PRP and the public worker unions.
So says Kirks grandma
He’s great for corporate and union interests…actual taxpayers not so much.
Caldwell is a prodigy of Mufi. You remember Mufi!
“finished 2nd to Democrat David Ige”… yeah, Aiona’s hat was handed to him as he LOST by 12+%. And let’s not forget that Abercrombie beat him by 17%. Go ahead Duke… run again. Do the Mufi thing and keep asking the public how much they DON’T want you.
Since Aiona never accomplished anything noteworthy as LG (of course, who does?), he has a clean record. The poll results should be related to combine Aiona’s and Martin’s numbers as “anybody but Caldwell” or the anti-rial vote.
Aiona is a nice guy but is he competent? You can’t fake it as mayor. You need to perform every day.
..” You need to perform every day.” That’s all the last 3 Mayors have done–“PERFORM”.
Citizens of Honolulu don’t need anymore Vaudevillian-performances; Citizens need transparent, honest, and competent leadership. (Or, was your comment intended as a Commercial for “Viagra”?)
His opposition to Gay rights because of his religion is reprehensible. We don’t need a “Christian” mayor in Honolulu.
He’s a Mormon cult member, don’t insult Christians.
Oh come on. Anybody who can read a newspaper knows that Mr. Aiona is a life-long Catholic. Try reading instead of trolling.
You’re probably thinking of Mufi Hannemann. Hannemann doesn’t let his religion get in the way of politics.
(He doesn’t let his religion get in the way of his politics) Hannemann allowed rampant development for the Marriott in a Mormon community. Guess he took care of his own first. Religion ruled his politics. That’s why he’s out!
Mr. Aiona is truly a nice guy. He was not too hot as a Deputy Prosecutor (I had cases with him where his preparation was non-existent.) but he really did a great job in Family Court as a Judge and his work with Drug Court was exemplary. There is however a reason why, in the mid-80s people at the Richardson School of Law used to say “The Bar Exams? Don’t worry, Duke passed them.”
What happened to Mufi? Did he already get his cut of bribes from his pet project of the rail?
who cares i never want to see him in office again
Lol,Aiona. I thought Ward Research was run outta town? Lol.
This has to be the worst choices I can remember in an election!
agree
It is hard to believe that some registered voters on Oahu have not heard of these three politicians. They must be living under a rock.
YOU FORGOT TO MENTION AULANI KAAIHUE FOR MAYOR. All you folks will lose credibility at posting the truth, if you forget to mention Aulani Kaaihue, the youngest out of all those candidates listed. She has been posting throughtout Honolulu, and it’s very obvious. I thought I had read some bad news about Ernie Martin and him getting busted for drugs. Can someone verify that? http://kaaihue4mayor.blogspot.com/ Make sure you report the actual pools. KAAIHUE STEALS THE POLLS!!
Bu Laia…
never heard of her. ever
The Martin drug connection thing is that his campaign manager was a convicted coke dealer who went to prison.
Also Aulani, I love your you tube page.
THANK YOU, IT’S CHEESY AINT IT?? ELEMENTARY MEDIA LEVEL, I KNOW. DON’T WORRY, WHEN IM MAYOR, IT’LL BE TOP GUNS.
Aiona’s numbers are similar to Cayetano’s. In the primary, Cayetano was ahead of cladwell, but the mayoral, non-party election requires a run-off election if no candidate gets 50% plus one of the total votes cast. Cayetano was never able to show more than 49% of the vote. cladwell knew that and hence the attacks on Cayetano’s character via surrogate SuperPAC honcho White.
So, Aiona needs the same to win the mayorship. What he has got going for him, are all the disenfranchised Republicans and conservative Christians who have longed to have a “non-partisan” flag-bearer in power somewhere in Hawaii. That constituency may make the difference. This plus the considerable anti-rail vote may glean Aiona that coveted 50% plus one vote.
What about the majority Pro-mail vote?
Look Hawaii, at how the news media deliberately and intentionally leaves out the only Woman Candidate who has put herself out on the line as a Candidate for Honolulu Mayor. Don’t count on this years election to be credible by any news agency in Hawaii. False Reporting, Fake NewsPaper of StarAdvertiser!! http://www.kaaihue4mayor.com You know what all those guys have in common? One thing-they are all attorneys. Vote for another attorney, no wonder Hawaii is still so ignorant. All they good at is manipulating the laws, and numbers.
Wouldn’t vote for any of them.
Anyone but Caldwell who has been a big disappointment.
The Mayor’s race will be the same as the last Governor’s race: It’s not that Aiona is favored for his ability, it’s just that people are tired of the incumbent and the “status quo”. People didn’t “want” Ige, they just didn’t want another round with Abercrombie.
Baloney. Caldwell hem done an outstanding job.
You are correct>
Run, Shrimp Boy, Run!
Very simple option on the ballot. None of the above. Not one of these three baboozes have the credibility, integrity, ethical strength to serve as mayor. Current mayor has proven it over and over.
Sad to say with all the ongoing corruption, financial debacles, back door dealing, it is just about impossible to find an honest candidate for mayor.
Just another day in the Nei.
It’s a simple choice for me. Who is in favor of rail, who is opposed. Aiona is my choice, regardless of party. Homelessness, religion, infrastructure decay is important BUT don’t kid yourself, the rail project is what will make or break the choice for mayor.
Alone does not respect the separation of church and state. I would not vote for him ever.
Auto correct thinks Aiona should be spelled Alone. There’s wisdom there!
Martin, with his love affair with rail will never ever ever get my vote.
Dear Mr. Caldwell,
It seems like you took rail as a mandate in very much the same way W. took sending troops into Iraq was a mandate when he “stole” the election. We have not forgotten that you “stole” the election in a similar manner under the guise of the PRP who slandered then candidate Ben Cayetano. I’m not a Cayetano supporter, but I am a support of the democratic process which seems to have gone by the wayside in this modern era of corporation acting as an oligarchy. You epitomize this, backed by General Growth, A & B, Kiewit, and a slew of other interests pushing their agenda right through your office. You are rubber stamping them with little reflection on the implications for generations to come. So glad you are second in the polls!
agree
“The stolen election” and denial is a river in Egypt.
In my opinion, there is no difference between Caldwell and Martin. I would not vote for either. Both seem to me to be self serving and power hungry.
Aiona is someone I may consider voting for if he can more define what his plan for the city would be.
Still hoping others will jump into the race as we sure do need a real choice. Otherwise, we in this town are doomed.
If Duke runs he has our vote. SICK of Kirk, Ernie and all the current lolo’s in office !!
ABC—Anybody But Caldwell.
This poll is more a reflection of voter dissatisfaction with those currently in power than it is an approval of Aiona. He is just the beneficiary of the voter outrage with city government. Martin should rethink his political aspirations, outside of the North shore with it’s very few voters, there’s no way he gets elected in an island wide or state wide race. He’s too unlikable and looks like a mafia hitman.
Martin will only be Caldwell part deux.
Aiona has the biggest fly swatter. Homeless better behave if he wins.
You Think Aiona becomming mayor will stop the rail. I don’t think so. the council will overide him. They spent to much already if they stop how are we going to pay the billions back to the feds plus all the cnx. contracts.no douts they are going to be lawsuits to. more money wasted .
All Aiona as mayor has to do is require a full audit of the Oahu rail project and publicly release that information. The result of that information made to Hawaii residents, the Feds and the nation will cause the Oahu rail project to implode on itself like the Hawaii Health connector. The TRUTH of the train to nowhere project made public will be result in its demise not Aiona.
If so, Aiona should appoint Marion Higa for the special audit. Better yet, she should run for mayor.
AULANI KAAIHUE’S STILL HAWAII’S FAVORITE. MAHALO EVERYONE!! THANK YOU, I LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING WHO WILL BE BRAVE ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE ME. SO FAR, NO ONE HAS COME FORWARD. WISHING THINKING. THIS SHALL BE FUN. MAYBE ILL WIN BY DEFAULT!! KAAIHUE4MAYOR.COM
MY VOTE IS KAAIHUE!