State Rep. Gene Ward has run campaigns over the span of two decades, and even though the Republican lawmaker is unopposed in the coming election, he’s trying to help other GOP hopefuls and is watching carefully how things have changed. One thing he’s noticed: Campaigns are now broken into two segments — the weeks and months before the early voting begins and then the final push before the final Election Day arrives.
"Now it’s like a rolling election," said Ward, who represents the Hawaii Kai area. "That means there are two big ones: the front end and the back end. The new model favors the incumbent because name recognition is important on the front end. The known quantity wins the first election. It’s much more difficult on the challenger."
Early voting — both the walk-in option at select locations around the islands, and the vote-by-mail absentee balloting — has permanently altered the dynamic of elections in Hawaii, and in an increasing number of states that have some form of that allowance. More than half the states, including Hawaii, now enable both early voting and what’s called "no excuses" absentee voting. This latter option means that anyone can request an absentee ballot, without giving any kind of reason and regardless of their plans to be present or absent on Election Day.
In addition, Hawaii is one of seven states, plus the District of Columbia, that allow voters to register for permanent absentee status, meaning they’ll get a mailed ballot every election, without the bother of reapplying. Only two states — Oregon and Washington — have gone the full distance of conducting all elections by mail, but Hawaii remains one of the most liberal with alternative voting options.
And the early option is becoming increasingly popular. Glen Takahashi is elections administrator for Honolulu’s Office of the City Clerk and has been immersed in this business for 12 years.
Every election cycle, Takahashi said, the number of voters who opt for voting early, either at walk-in stations or by mail, grows by another 20 percent. Now about 48 percent of voters in Honolulu are expected to have already cast their ballot by the time Tuesday rolls around.
Twenty years ago, Hawaii’s lieutenant governor was required by the state Constitution to serve as the chief elections officer. That’s when Ben Cayetano, who then held the job, indicated he would not seek an excuse for those wanting an absentee ballot. The no-excuses rule became official soon after, in a legislative act.
It has changed the dynamic of campaigns, said state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim, who was unopposed in the August primary and is now re-elected for another four-year term. She said she was lucky not to need the new strategy for the current election but realizes that the next one will need to be structured differently.
"I’ve been doing this for 30 years," Kim said. "I didn’t realize how many people have voted by Election Day.
"We’ve always slated to send out a brochure for the very last week, and we would be holding signs at all of the intersections where people would drive," she added. "Now, with so many people getting absentee ballots, you really have to consider doing things much earlier, and whether you need to sign-hold nearer the early-voting polling place.
"This year the numbers for absentee voting have grown, and yet there’s so much money being spent," Kim said. "You wonder if it’s wasted. And who are they actually campaigning to?"
The states with the fewest early-voting options tend to be on the East Coast and Midwest, according to a report by the National Council on State Legislatures. Takahashi has observed that pattern, too.
"You move out west, it becomes more open and you get into this no-excuses absentee voting," he said. "Entire states vote by mail, and things like that. It could be a difference of philosophy, of thinking about early voting.
"I think that’s why there’s a whole lot of absentee-voting laws," he added. "There’s no ‘one size’ that fits every jurisdiction. That’s why every state is allowed to make their own laws as they see fit and appropriate for their community."
In big-money campaigns, national and otherwise, the most experienced consultants are using the bifurcation of the election season to particular advantage.
Colin Moore, a University of Hawaii assistant professor in political science, said early voting is popular with the electorate and with the campaign leaders. These sophisticated experts try to identify who among the early voters are impressionable, Moore said, and then target them to lock up their vote and move on. This makes the waning weeks of a campaign more efficient because you’ve already winnowed the field, he added.
There’s an impressive amount of data available to be mined, Moore said, enabling campaigns to analyze who is most likely to vote for their candidate. Consultants have combed through Facebook "likes" and other assorted expressions, on- and offline, of individual preferences, he said, and have databases showing some intriguing linkages that enable microtargeting of advertising.
For example, he said, if a Democratic campaign wants to find a friendly voter who needs a push — the kind of Democrat who only votes in high-turnout elections — someone who shops at Whole Foods is likely to fall into that camp. To cite a contrary example, he said, diners at Outback restaurants are more likely to be high-turnout Republicans.
Moore’s UH faculty colleague, political scientist Neal Milner, said that such targeted outreach efforts are more effective for the late voters and that the early voters are easier to find.
"I think that the more typical early voter is someone who is engaged in the election and is not likely to change their mind," Milner said. "I think a peripheral voter is less likely to vote early."
What data allows to happen is a more focused grassroots door-knocking campaign, so that the candidate wastes as little time as possible, he said. The Pacific Resource Partnership advertising campaign for the rail project applies some of this researched approach. As for the door-to-door canvassing, now a storied element in well-organized presidential campaigns, Milner said that was always the core of Hawaii electioneering.
Most of the smaller legislative races here are a long way from needing to do a data dive. But the early-voting dynamic does help candidates frame their campaign more efficiently, said Bernice Mau, Honolulu’s city clerk.
"The main thing a lot of the candidates wanted to know is when the ballots are mailed," she said. "Some are concerned with how many did we get back — the ones that already voted."
Takahashi added: "We have been consistently mailing 20 days prior to the election for more than a half-dozen years, just to establish a certain amount of consistency for those stakeholders, the campaigns, so they have something they can count on."
Takahashi could see no reason why the steady increase in popularity of early voting should top out. He did acknowledge that some will argue that they want the full amount of time to make their decision, almost as a matter of principle.
"Those are the people that return their absentee mail ballot, like, the day before the election," he said. "I mean, it happens. We mail it out three weeks before, and there’s always this bunch that come in the day of the election or the day before.
"You can’t blame people for that," he added. "It’s the undecided voter, right?"
Moore said that although this critique is fading in the face of early-voting popularity, he’s sympathetic to it.
"I think there are questions: ‘What if we learn something about the candidate later?’ There is, perhaps, more potential for fraud.
"And you do lose that sense of civic activity of going to vote," he said. "Polling places and the Department of Motor Vehicles are among the few places where people of all walks of life have to stand in line. Maybe I’m a bit of a romantic, but I’d hate to see that go."
