If the pundits and pollsters are right about the divisiveness of this election, Hawaii voters may well decide the outcome of this year’s presidential race. Calling the nine swing states using interactive electoral maps shows multiple scenarios in which this could happen.
For example, say Mitt Romney sweeps Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa; and President Barack Obama holds Ohio, Nevada and Colorado.
Then when Hawaii’s polls close, Romney will have 268 electoral votes to Obama’s 266 — out of the necessary 270 — meaning our four votes will determine the outcome. In fact, of the 512 possible combinations of swing state outcomes, our electoral votes decide the election in about 5 percent of them, assuming we vote for the victor.
Hawaii is the last state in the union to close its polls and report returns, so this election will not technically be over till da big kahuna sings. The four electors we send to the Electoral College can thus swing this race. Hawaii, which has not played an important role in any of the presidential elections in which we have participated, may at last have its day in the sun. This is truer still when we consider the popular vote, which is expected to be won by a razor-thin margin and for which every vote really counts.
For kamaaina, in a hectic world in which heuristics are everything, voting for Obama is generally a no-brainer. I will proudly vote for him in the cafeteria of Noelani Elementary, which Obama and I both attended, a generation apart.
We both went on to graduate from Punahou School, where we chuckled and rolled our eyes through Mr. Kusunoki’s jokes in homeroom. We both went to Harvard and after grad we both worked in community outreach on Chicago’s South Side. What’s more, we were both born in Muslim countries, I in Kuwait and Obama in — oh, um, wait …
Of course, I am far from alone: Many locals feel this sort of eerie affinity — even kinship — with Barry Obama. Is it any surprise that our country’s first hapa president is from Hawaii, the hotbed of multiracial identity? A homegrown island boy, he seems to "get" us.
My issue-oriented friends sometimes mock me for this feeling, but instinct is as good a reason as any to vote for a candidate — if not the best reason, since it is a reliable predictor of shared political beliefs. In this case, Obama understands our respect for our keiki and kupuna; our need for a smart, strong military and support for our military ohana; and our kuleana to preserve our aina by prioritizing clean, renewable energy.
So get to the polls. With Hawaii’s potential to decide the outcome of this election and with a braddah on the ballot, we have highly practical and highly symbolic reasons to vote this year. These reasons would become one and the same if Hawaii, when all this is pau, is the state responsible for re-electing Obama.
Still, I urge Romney supporters to make their presence felt in Hawaii — and perhaps to swing this election, if they can get out some serious vote. As we know, Hawaii has the poorest voter turnout in the nation. Let’s turn this around. With an increasingly divided polity on the mainland, Hawaii may yet become a key state in coming elections. Vote on Nov. 6, if you haven’t already.
