National surveys show Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in a tight race.
As the economy has improved, Obama’s approval rating has ranged from the mid-40s to 50 percent — historically the threshold for reelection. But the president is not elected by a national popular vote. The real contest takes place in the 50 states and the Electoral College, with the swing states deciding the election. Luckily for Obama, while many Republican voters are unhappy about their presidential candidate, Democratic and independent voters in many swing states are mobilized against Republican legislatures and governors.
In 2010, voters angry at high unemployment brought Republicans to power in more than two dozen states. Once in power, using legislation drafted by the American Legislative Exchange Council, they introduced restrictions on abortion, public employee unions and voting. But there has been a big backlash in many swing states.
No Republican has won the presidency without Ohio (18 electoral votes). But voters there recently overturned Republican Gov. John Kasich’s law restricting unions by a large margin. Similarly, in Maine (four votes), voters overturned Republican Gov. Paul Le Page’s law against same-day voter registration and early voting.
In Wisconsin (10 votes), a potential swing state, there were massive protests against restrictive laws on unions and cuts in education and social services. Voters recalled two Republican state senators, and there is an upcoming recall election against Gov. Scott Walker and four more Republican state senators. During the Wisconsin primary, Romney praised Gov. Walker, and polls now show Obama far ahead.
In Florida (29 votes), a perennial swing state, Republican Gov. Rick Scott pushed through laws requiring drug testing for welfare recipients and public employees. But his law restricting voter registration has been challenged in court and his approval rating has dipped as low as 30 percent.
In Michigan (16 votes), Romney reaffirmed his 2008 New York Times opinion piece, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” Michigan voters disagree. They are grateful that the Obama administration bailed out and restructured GM and Chrysler, allowing them to return to profitability and save large numbers of jobs. Surveys show Romney far behind, despite his late father’s popularity as governor.
In Virginia (13 votes), Republican Gov. Mark O’Donnell at first supported a bill requiring women seeking an abortion to get a sonogram that would probably require an internal probe. After an international media firestorm, he backed off, but not before enraging women all across the country. In Pennsylvania (20 votes), Republican Gov. Tom Corbett faced a similar backlash from the same bill. Meanwhile, Romney said he would veto funding for Planned Parenthood, Senate Republicans voted against requiring health plans to provide contraceptives, and conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh lost dozens of advertisers after he slammed a Georgetown University law student who spoke in favor of providing contraceptives. Obama now leads Romney by 18 points among women, who vote more than men.
In addition, Arizona, Alabama and other Republicans’ laws and statements against immigrants will hurt Republicans in swing states like Nevada (six votes), Colorado (nine votes) and New Mexico (five votes), which have large numbers of Latino voters.
Finally, the savage infighting among Republican candidates and Romney’s continuing gaffes revealing his upper-class outlook have pushed his negatives above 50 percent.
A recent USA Today/Gallup poll in 12 swing states showed Obama leading 51 percent to 42 percent. Maybe conservative pundit George Will was right when he wrote recently that Republicans should focus on Congress instead of the presidency.
