The much sought-after decrease in unemployment rates after the economic crash of 2007 has been fully achieved after eight long years of successive quantitative easing with the lending rate by the Federal Reserve having been close to zero for the past seven years.
The U.S. economy that entered the doldrums in 2007 after the much-
expected housing crisis, has revived; U.S. exports of goods and services are healthy; and the U.S. is able to buy goods from China and the rest of the world at reasonable to low prices, keeping residents happy.
Tourism into the United States is booming, and Hawaii appears to have recovered from a fear of deficits.
The amazing phenomenon visible to all, in spite of the quantitative easing and weakness of the dollar, is that the U.S. dollar is strong compared to any other world currency. This is unusual for a weak currency.
While the dollar has been the cheapest it can possibly be, virtually all world currencies — including the major ones — have fallen in relation to the dollar in the past year.
This is not to mention that oil prices have been the lowest in years, thus facilitating commerce within the United States.
But probably the most powerful statement on the economy is that unemployment is on target (less than or equal to 5 percent) while inflation is controlled (under 2.5 percent per year).
The net increase in the consumer price index was zero between September and October 2015, while a hefty 270,000 non-farm jobs were added in October.
The producer price index from August to October fell 0.8 percent. These were complemented by manufacturing productivity increasing by 4.9 percent in the third quarter and real earnings increasing by 0.2 percent in October.
Exports fell by 0.8 percent in September and October, but import prices also fell, by 1.1 percent, over the same period, meaning that the net forces on the trade deficit were in the right direction.
Since 2011, housing starts have been increasing every year, standing presently at 1.06 million, a good number even in good times.
The stock market has recovered dramatically since the lows of 2007, having increased at an annual rate of 15.8 percent from the low point of March 6, 2010, to Thanksgiving this year.
Indeed, all economic indicators point to the fact that the U.S. economy is doing great — firing well on all engines. Hence, the need for a rate hike does not appear justified at this stage.
What a rate hike would do, instead, is send all other countries into a spin, making it more difficult for them to buy from the U.S.
Yes, oil prices will drop further — to the happiness of U.S. residents — but the economic boom that the U.S. has experienced in the past eight years would start to slow without high inflation justifying the need.
There is no reason for Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen to increase the Fed’s lending rates this week unless the Fed wants to give a knock-out punch to the rest of the world, but which is not justified for any reason in this globally connected economy. Hawaii, in particular, is always particularly sensitive to the dollar rate, and could take a hit in tourism should the dollar appreciate any more.
At present, the U.S. dollar is strong while being the weakest it can be. The Fed has all the power it needs any time it wants to curb inflation, but we don’t need to spill our economic ammunition when the inflation dragon has not reared its head.
Amarjit Singh is a professor of engineering at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
