The outlook for Hawaii’s economy through the rest of this year has dimmed based in part on weaker-than-expected visitor arrivals and lower job growth.
The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism released its quarterly outlook Wednesday, saying it expects the state’s economy to grow by 1.3 percent this year, down from the 1.6 percent rate it forecast in May. DBEDT also revised its growth rate downward slightly for 2012 and 2013.
Although visitor traffic from Japan has "fully recovered" from the March earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, visitor arrivals from the mainland have been running below last year’s levels since June, DBEDT said. The department is now forecasting visitor arrivals to grow by 3 percent to 7.3 million this year. That is down from the 3.8 percent increase predicted in May. DBEDT also has eased its forecast for job growth and inflation-adjusted personal income.
Visitor spending is expected to grow a bit faster than previously thought, but part of the upward revision is due to adjustments to the data to account for rising hotel room rates and a general increase in inflation, according to DBEDT.
"Though we expect the economy will not be as robust during the second half of this year, we still anticipate some job growth in our economy," said Richard Lim, DBEDT director.
He noted that the economy was strong enough in the first half of the year to produce a 9.7 percent increase in excise tax collections, the highest rate in five years. In addition, the number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell by 10.8 percent through mid-August compared with the same period a year ago, Lim said. And Hawaii’s unemployment rate, at 6.1 percent in July, was the ninth lowest in the country.
DBEDT is forecasting that payroll jobs will reach 602,100 this year, a 1.5 percent increase over 2010. In May the agency had forecast a 1.8 percent rise in jobs.
"This downward revision is based on the weaker performance of tourism and a slowdown in the U.S. national economy," according to the agency.
Personal income, after adjusting for inflation, is expected to grow 0.8 percent this year, down from the 1 percent growth in the previous forecast.
The number of visitors from the mainland has been negatively affected by an overall slowdown in U.S. growth, DBEDT said. The report also cited a worsening outlook for Japan’s economy this year as a potential weakness going forward.
"The slow growth of our economy here in Hawaii, coupled with the uncertainty and slowdown of the U.S. and Japanese economies are a wake-up call for us," Lim said. "We must continue to shift Hawaii’s economy to a more independent and sustainable foundation."
