For months each year, we follow the tracks of hurricanes headed toward our islands. We react to notices of earthquakes, tsunami and floods.
We are now beginning to address an even bigger threat. We are learning the risks associated with sea level rise. The Hawaii Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report released in December 2017, predicted a loss of 25,800 acres of coastal and low-lying land when sea level rises another 3.2 feet over the rest of the century. The report documents many other impacts, including the chronic flooding of 6,500 structures, loss of 38 miles of coastal roads, and flooding of over 550 cultural sites. These results were recently published in the premier science journal, Nature.
How should we respond? For the last three decades, “doing something about climate change” meant trying to reduce greenhouse gases that drive global warming. Government regulations, incentives and consumer education have all been applied.
Climate change adaptation requires a complementary effort to strengthen local strategies that reduce the threats of sea level rise, coastal erosion and flooding, groundwater inundation, more intense storms and other effects of climate change.
Adaptation requires a mix of short- and long-term planning, regulatory, investment and educational tools. New adaptation initiatives can be phased in to prepare us for future impacts.
Greater resilience is achieved by reducing areas exposed to sea level rise and other sources of flooding and to ensure that vulnerable housing, commercial activities and public facilities and infrastructure are designed, sited, constructed and maintained to withstand predictable threats, including flooding.
There is no technocratic template that applies to all climate adaption strategies for all locations. Climate adaptation will require tailoring planning, infrastructure and regulatory interventions and other means to adjust to specific local conditions. Scores of types of climate adaptation tools and strategies are being discussed; a few are outlined below.
Robust protection adaptation structures:
>> For some exceptionally expensive critical facilities such as airports, some sewage treatment facilities and port facilities, costs and engineering may justify building dikes, levees and other protective structures to reduce the impacts of climate change, storm surge and other events.
Resilient adaptation plans:
>> Counties have begun or are beginning to develop general plans and regional development plans to address climate threats, plus long-term strategies to reduce the risks of threats to life and property.
>> All four counties participate in the National Flood Insurance Program that permit homeowners to qualify for federally subsidized flood insurance.
Because sea level rise and storm surge will increase the frequency and geographic extent of flooding, updated county flood insurance maps will qualify more landowners and encourage more resilient building standards.
>> The recently designed post-disaster reconstruction plan developed on Maui provides a useful adaptation plan to address the impacts of climate change as well as hurricanes, storm surge or tsunami.
Adapting “safety margin” infrastructure:
>> Identification of some highways, road, bridges, ports and other transportation infrastructure requiring strengthening or relocation has begun or is beginning.
>> Some drainage canals are inadequate to manage the volume and frequency of intense storms that cause heavy flooding and siltation in coastal areas.
Enlarging drainage canals can be engineered in some areas, but the addition of retention basins to retain some stormwater runoff in upper watersheds, engineering “green” infrastructure to absorb or divert stormwater and more extreme means such as diverting excessive runoff such as the proposed Ala Wai golf course as a temporary means to reduce flooding.
>> “Safety measures” also include updating building and plumbing codes and other more-stringent design standards in specific vulnerable areas.
Community engagement:
Adapting to a changing climate will require changes in how we manage our land to reduce climate threats, in how we protect major facilities and how we make transportation, communication, energy, water and waste treatment networks and facilities more resilient. Because climate adaptation initiatives will change how and where many of us will live and work, community engagement in understanding the threats climate change poses, reviewing options to reduce climate impacts and participating in determining what strategies are most acceptable is a fundamental element of adaptation planning.
We are beginning to learn a great deal about the current risks associated with climate change. We should not let what we don’t yet know keep us from doing the things we ought to be doing now.
Kem Lowry is emeritus professor in the University of Hawaii-Manoa Department of Urban and Regional Planning.