It is impressive that the federal government responded promptly to send disaster management teams to Hawaii after President Donald Trump proactively signed a disaster declaration. The search and rescue teams, incident management teams, and emergency response teams are necessary to attend to the damage that occurs after a major hurricane. It is also impressive that the state took measures to ensure contingencies for hospital emergencies were ready, that law enforcement and the National Guard would be active, and that first responders would be on hand.
Yet, all the above are efforts at curing the symptom rather than the disease. It is a band-aid and balm to soothe defrayed nerves after devastation. A good doctor cures the disease rather than just treat the symptoms.
Remember, the next major hurricane to make landfall is around the corner. But hurricanes don’t have it in them to be forgiving. Hurricane Iniki was a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 145 mph and gusts of 175 mph. The damage was so steep and widespread that it took Kauai more than 10 years to fully recover.
A Category 5 hurricane, as Lane was, carried wind speeds of 160 mph and gusts that could be expected at 200 mph. Any Category 5 hurricane hitting a populated city is guaranteed to cause catastrophic damage. Most framed homes will be destroyed, with roof failure and wall collapse; trees will be uprooted, and telephone poles toppled; electricity could be gone for weeks and water supply as well, because water supply needs electrical energy to pump; flooding will be rampant and storm drains could burst; runoff could penetrate water supply pipes, contaminating them for months; roads would be closed, and communities isolated.
The flooding would carry houses to the ocean, and roofs would fly in the air. No number of FEMA or civil defense teams or the Coast Guard and police, or all the king’s men and horses can prevent this.
The time to prepare for hurricanes is like preparing for war: in peacetime.
Known flood channels must be given higher embankments of mud, brick and concrete. Sandbags are not effective for a raging, sweeping flood. In this respect, East Oahu flood channels need special attention. Further, hydraulic coastal defenses are needed to protect major coastline centers. Storm weather drains have to be inspected not only for debris and blockages, but also for their joint strength and firmness of the soil bed. Old water supply pipes have to be replaced with newer ones and essential repairs undertaken months and years before a severe hurricane to prevent pipe bursts.
It is not enough to have replacement telephone poles on hand during a hurricane, but to test and buttress the strength of existing poles. Many more homes must be strapped down with greater security if gusts of 200 mph have to be withstood. The windows of high-rise buildings must be strengthened. In addition, all high-rise buildings, especially the older ones, must revisit their designs to check if they were designed to withstand Category 5 winds.
A “Fukushima” must not repeat in Hawaii. After Fukushima, all nuclear plants were shuttered, structural designs were revisited, and retrofitting undertaken to ensure they could withstand a Richter 9.5 earthquake. All high-rise buildings must be retrofitted to avoid major building collapse, and ensure that foundations can resist severe flash flood erosion, even if this involves special foundation grouting.
With Lane, Hawaii dodged a bullet. But Hawaii will not be able to sustain $25 billion to $50 billion in damage to its facilities and infrastructure, and the rail project will likely come to a grinding halt.
Amarjit Singh is a civil engineering professor at the University of Hawaii-Manoa. The views here are his own and does not reflect the views or policies of UH.
