Most people probably were toggling between different news sources over the last several days trying to figure out what was hype and what was right.
Even going between different primary sources of weather data was at times frustrating. Meteorologists weren’t saying the same things about the same satellite images, and the forecast track of the hurricane seemed to change every few hours, getting everyone alternately hopeful and fearful and then hopeful again.
And then mad. Some people got so mad. They felt they were tricked by the hype. They were frustrated at the long wait for impending doom. Waiting for anything is hard. Waiting for calamity is particularly frustrating, especially when it doesn’t show up on schedule.
But there’s really no fault to be found in this situation, particularly when community leaders are erring on the side of caution based on what they thought might happen.
The whole business of preparing for an impending storm is built on what might happen.
It is often a shock to realize that science doesn’t always know for certain. Sometimes, it’s best-guess or wait-and-see.
Maybe we’re shocked because we were taught in school that science is straight-up facts. Water boils at 100 degrees Celsius. Energy equals mass times the speed of light squared. Memorize the first two rows of the period table of elements for the test next week.
But there is a gap between the laws of science and the unknowable will of the natural world. When it comes to Mother Nature, like human nature, science only can predict.
And then there is many people’s limited ability to understand science coupled with a strong tendency for wishful thinking. We want to know what will happen in the simplest terms, and we want everything to be OK.
An exchange on live television with a meteorologist went something like this:
The latest track looks like great news, right?
Well, although it’s true that the forecast track shows the cone mostly passing south of the island of Oahu, the cone is just the predicted possible path of the center of the hurricane. The dangerous conditions can extend miles beyond the cone.
But Oahu’s not in the cone… so that’s a relief.
Well, the forecast at this point is that the eye of the hurricane will not pass over the island, but it will get dangerously close, so residents should prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
But we’re outside the cone, so we’re good, right?
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center tried to bridge the gap between knowable facts of the hurricane and it’s uncertain future:
“Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane,” the website warned. “The close proximity of this hurricane track to the main Hawaiian Islands and the forecast timing of Lane’s turn to the west remains challenging.”
After all that worry, there’s bound to be a release of frustration in the form of pointed barbs at those who told us to brace for wind when the problem was actually rain, and for decisions that led to school kids staying home for two relatively placid days, but there was no way to know for sure and you can’t fault officials for being cautious. Lane was slow. Lane was massive. Lane had a mind of its own.
Reach Lee Cataluna at 529-4315 or lcataluna@staradvertiser.com.
