The military and so-called security experts’ analyses of why North Korea is open to dialogue, what they supposedly want, and the impacts of U.S. hard-line rhetoric show little understanding of Korea.
Consider another perspective by those who have lived in Korea for years, and continue to be engaged with friends and colleagues — former Korea Peace Corps volunteers. We learned from experience that Koreans have some of the same basic goals and needs, do not relish war, and value patience and tolerance.
What does any non-superpower want? To survive, to be strong enough to resist colonial or military takeover. To be respected, and perhaps feared. To prosper in accordance with its economic, political, cultural and ideological beliefs.
North Koreans are not, as the military often assumes, suicidal. They want economic success and a better life for their families and children. For decades after the Korean War, they used isolation, rhetorical bluster and partnerships with communist regimes to, more or less, maintain the status quo.
What has changed? Three of the most consequential developments that are NOT the result of President Donald Trump’s policy are: (1) the maturity of its military/nuclear capabilities; (2) the growing aspects of a capitalist marketplace in both China and North Korea; and (3) perhaps the most important, the election of South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
North Korean missile launches and military technology are now prominent enough for the regime to claim it has arrived on the global scene as a player. There is exaggeration of these capacities, but what really matters is whether they have reached a plausible level of respect both internally and internationally. In other words, North Korea was previously not confident or ready to engage with the West on somewhat equal terms. Now it is. This is not because Bill Clinton or George W. Bush or Barack Obama were weak or foolish. It is because North Korea was not ready.
The years of extensive starvation and famine have ended, the population is more urban, and cities are seeing infrastructure and economic markets. Their big-brother mentor, China, is more capitalistic as well. Money and prosperity are intoxicating and draw even the most stubborn of regimes into a frame of mind that wants more — more trade and international relations.
The most important change is the election of President Moon. More than any previous leader since Kim Dae-Jung, Moon recognizes that one must first build a culture of mutual shared interests, confidence and trust building, and the re-emergence of a sense of Korean-ness. Not North Korea and Communist allies. Not South Korea and the U.S. — but a cultural, linguistic, ethnic pride that may slowly transcend the vestiges of the cold war.
Moon arranged the collaboration in the Olympics. We see initiatives from the arts, and from small economic partnerships. We see a “getting to know you” feel to their dialogue. All this will make the danger of conflict, whether by conventional or nuclear weapons, far less likely. And, we would argue, must come before wholesale denuclearization of the peninsula.
It is far more likely that it will be the North and South Korean leadership teams that thaw the ice, and set the stage, step by tentative step, for a less dangerous Asian world.
The White House and the military don’t appreciate that what has fundamentally changed is Asia itself.
It is irresponsible to leap from a happy summit date to fear of nuclear war in one day, and to attempt to again frighten Hawaii, or Guam or anywhere else. Let’s give credit where credit is due: to the Koreans themselves, for the hope of peaceful co-existence.
Randall Kawamoto and James Shon are former Peace Corps volunteers who lived in Korea for years.