It was just one sentence in the reams of data coming from the Tax Review Commission’s latest study, but the impact is jolting: The state is not getting enough money to operate.
Honolulu Star-Advertiser Capitol bureau chief Kevin Dayton went over a report by the commission’s consultant, Philadelphia, Pa.-based PFM Group, which was hired to study Hawaii’s tax system.
The big problem, according to PFM Group director Randall Bauer, is paying retirees’ benefits.
The payments are called unfunded liabilities, which essentially means money you owe that you don’t have, as in “the rent’s due, and I’m broke.”
“It is the project team’s conclusion that the current revenue structure is likely inadequate by itself to fund this additional obligation from existing revenue on a year-to-year basis,” Bauer said in response to questions from the commission.
There was no pushback from Gov. David Ige’s administration. Budget director Wesley Machida said if nothing is done, “it would be very, very difficult because the tax revenues over the last 10 years have not kept pace with the growing liabilities and other commitments.”
If you thought Honolulu’s rail budget was off the tracks, take a look at what the state is projected to owe retired state workers.
The public workers retirement unfunded liability is $12.44 billion as of 2015. The public workers unfunded liability for health insurance is $11.7 billion.
The state and the counties’ estimates of needed annual savings to pay the tab are growing. Next year it will be $811 million, and by 2025, it will be $1.35 billion.
But the state and counties are not getting enough tax money to pay that much, so what to do?
State Rep. Sylvia Luke, House Finance Committee chairwoman, said the state needs to have a chat with the public employee unions about doing something besides funding the unfunded.
What she is talking about would have been Democratic Party heresy just a few years ago, so she is approaching it gently.
“We need to have a conversation about whether the post-benefit package is something we can afford,” Luke said in an interview last week.
One thing that won’t happen, Luke said, is a tax increase to pay for the retirement and health insurance unfunded liabilities.
“The payments are just like debt services, it is something the state owes, but I don’t think we can justify raising taxes for an unfunded liability,” Luke said.
Luke added that changing benefits is not unheard of. When the state was reeling from the 2008 recession, it changed benefits for new hires. Retirement benefits for spouses and dependents were cut for those hired in the future.
Raising the subject of fiddling around with public worker benefits can be perilous. Just ask former Gov. Neil Abercrombie about the reaction he got when he said he wanted to cancel state workers’ reimbursement of their Medicare Part B premiums. It wasn’t pushback; it was more like in-your-face shoveback.
Still, Luke said the public employee costs are such that it may be time to examine a hybrid package. She suggested maybe paying workers more and tamping down on the retirement package.
“The civil service retirement package was contemplated decades ago. Generations today are more likely to have several jobs or careers now,” Luke said.
“We need to look at the whole system.”
It is a good discussion to start because the consultants, bureaucrats and politicians are all starting to agree: Time is up.