More than a year out from the 2018 election, Gov. David Ige presents a tempting but also formidable target for some ambitious Democrats, and several are weighing the possibility of a run against him.
To hear some experienced political players size up the situation, Ige may be inadvertently encouraging his potential opponents because he hasn’t completed some weighty chores that are expected of an aggressive incumbent who is hungry for re-election.
Perhaps most importantly, Ige so far has failed to raise large amounts of money to fuel his re-election effort. Raising money is usually relatively easy for an incumbent governor, and loading up the campaign treasury early is an effective way to discourage potential challengers.
But Ige’s most recent campaign filing shows he had only $285,960 in cash on hand at the end of 2016, which is a small fraction of what would be required to finance a traditional high-powered statewide re-election campaign with polling, consultants and media buys. Ige has held just one fundraiser since then, according to state records.
Others say Ige hasn’t yet built an effective grass-roots organization that can be mobilized to help him win a second term.
Longtime political observers who spoke on condition that they not be identified speculated that Ige might be taking his re-election for granted. They wonder whether Ige remembers the 2014 election that made him governor was mostly fueled by the voters’ unhappiness with former Gov. Neil Abercrombie, and not by their fondness for Ige.
Ige’s supporters counter that polling shows the public is generally satisfied with Ige’s performance so far, which bodes well for next year’s re-election campaign. Ige cites the pending return of direct flights from Japan to Kona and the upcoming privatization of Maui hospitals as accomplishments that demonstrate his leadership, and will appeal to voters.
Still, a growing number of candidates are considering a run for governor. They reportedly include Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho, state Sen. Jill Tokuda, and Hawaii News Now General Manager Rick Blangiardi, who are all Democrats. State Rep. Bob McDermott said he plans to run for governor as a Republican.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has also been the focus of political speculation for more than a year, with supporters urging her to run for governor. However, a number of observers now doubt she will enter the race, and Hanabusa would not comment on her plans.
A crowded field of four or more Democrats in the primary could help Ige and may make the race more difficult for his challengers. If his opponents divide up the anti-Ige vote among them in the Democratic primary, Ige could coast to a win based on the power of incumbency and his name recognition. As one observer remarked, “The bigger the field, the better off he is.”
It should also help Ige that most of his potential challengers lack statewide name recognition, and some observers believe the lesser-known candidates will struggle to raise enough money to buy advertising to introduce themselves to the voters.
The hustle for donations is well underway, with Tokuda holding fundraisers in January and May, McDermott holding fundraisers in December and February, and Carvalho meeting with potential Honolulu donors, according to people familiar with those gatherings.
POLITICIANS FRUSTRATED
Behind those early preparations are a cadre of frustrated political insiders, including former Abercrombie supporters, who have been hunting for more than a year for a viable alternative to run against Ige.
Unhappy lawmakers, lobbyists and party activists gripe to one another and to the media that they cannot get decisive action from the administration, but their frustrations with Ige do not appear to have spread to the general public.
“You don’t get a sense of passionate support for him, nor do you get a feeling that people really dislike him from the average Joe,” said former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who made unsuccessful runs for governor in 2010 and 2014. “It works for the incumbent. If a guy is gainfully employed and not worried about losing his job, and things are OK, and he’s benefiting by this economy, he’s not going to have an overwhelming feeling to throw the bum out, if you will.”
Hannemann said that Ige “doesn’t put himself in a situation to take any tough positions,” adding, “That’s his style of leadership. He’ll never thrust himself where you’re going to get really mad at him or passionately supportive of him. He’s just kind of the conductor making sure that — this is a bad analogy — that the train is running.”
Tokuda, who said she is seriously considering running for either governor or lieutenant governor, said the Ige administration “still feels like they’ve got the training wheels on.” She cited what she calls a “void of leadership” at the executive level at a time when the state is confronting major fiscal and social challenges.
Tokuda (D, Kailua-Kaneohe) said she has heard complaints about Ige’s handling of the controversy surrounding the Thirty Meter Telescope project on Hawaii island, and about his lack of leadership this year as lawmakers debated a possible extension of the excise tax surcharge to provide more money to complete construction of the Honolulu rail project.
Lawmakers could not agree on a final rail tax bill before the end of the session last month, and Tokuda was ousted as chairwoman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee in part because of that rail debate.
“You cannot have deafening silence at the executive level,” said Tokuda, 41. “You cannot have a dearth of leadership, and I think that’s what people are feeling right now. You need someone who’s going to step up and take command.”
McDermott (R, Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point) has served 11 years in the state House and has similar complaints.
McDermott is a supporter of the Honolulu rail project, and he also cited the inconclusive debate this year over rail as an example of the problem with Ige.
“He’s not going to intervene or lead as this excise (tax) train thing demands, that he get the two parties together and say, ‘Look, we’re going to figure this out,’” said McDermott, 53. “It’s the biggest public works project the state has ever undertaken, and you can’t let it dangle out there. He doesn’t care. He doesn’t want to get his hands dirty. He doesn’t want to be associated with it.”
McDermott is one of only five Republican elected officials left in Hawaii, and he will have to surrender his House seat to run for governor. He said he is fully aware how difficult it will be for a Republican to compete for statewide office here. “It can be done, but it’s pretty hard, and I get that,” he said.
When asked about those criticisms of his leadership, Ige said he is proud of his accomplishments, including the privatization of Maui Memorial Medical Center and two other Maui County hospitals. When Kaiser Permanente takes over the three facilities on July 1, it will be the largest privatization initiative in state history, he said.
He also cited union negotiations and arbitration settlements that resulted in what Ige believes are fair new contracts with most of the public worker bargaining units.
As for the rail project, Ige said his administration is working to bring leaders from the House, Senate and Honolulu City Council together with Mayor Kirk Caldwell to discuss possible funding options for rail “to support a transit system that we can afford.”
Ige said the rail project “might not be the best-managed project that there ever has been,” adding that he shares some of the concerns of lawmakers who want to know what is being done to manage the cost of rail.
UNCONFIRMED RIVALS
Other potential Ige challengers include Carvalho, 55, a former professional football player who has served as Kauai’s mayor since 2008.
In a written statement last week, Carvalho said: “I appreciate the many people who have approached me to run for governor. I am considering various options and have not made a final decision. I do know that I would like to continue public service in some capacity.
“As for now, I am completely focused on county operations and priority projects. I will be making an announcement in the near future,” Carvalho said.
Blangiardi, 70, said he’s flattered that his name has been circulating as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but wouldn’t say whether it’s something he is considering.
“That would be really premature for me to even comment on right now,” he said.
Hannemann said he has also been approached by people who asked him to run, but said he has done nothing to encourage that talk.
“I’m very happy with the causes that I’m engaged with right now,” said Hannemann, who is chief executive officer of the Hawaii Lodging & Tourism Association.
HANABUSA A WILD CARD
In the end, the critically important wild card in the governor’s race will likely be Hanabusa, who is one of the state’s most prominent Democrats and is often mentioned as a potential Ige challenger.
More than any of the other potential candidates, Hanabusa has the luxury of waiting to make a decision. She has high name recognition, a well-developed political organization and fundraising capacity that will allow her to mobilize quickly if she chooses to enter the governor’s race at the last minute in 2018.
However, Hanabusa is now established in what is generally viewed as a safe House seat representing urban Honolulu that she can probably hold indefinitely. Some observers doubt she would abruptly reverse course and return home to challenge Ige only a year after she campaigned to go to Washington, D.C.
Another potentially important factor is the health of U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono, who announced earlier this month she was undergoing treatment for stage 4 kidney cancer.
Hirono is firm that she will run for re-election in 2018, but if her illness causes her to change those plans, Hanabusa would be well positioned to make a strong bid to move up to the Senate. Hanabusa campaigned for the U.S. Senate in 2014, but lost to U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz.
Star-Advertiser reporter Sophie Cocke contributed to this story.
